The attention of the world directed to Putin's speech today; Possible three scenarios

The attention of the world directed to Putin's speech today; Possible three scenarios

Russia will mark the 77th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War, in which the then Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) lost 27 million people, 14 million of whom were civilians, today with a traditional central military parade on Red Square, but in specific circumstances due to the long-lasting conflict in Ukraine of more than 70 days.

There will be no guests from abroad in the stands, and the Kremlin explained that by the fact that this is not a jubilee anniversary.

However, even if it is a jubilee, the question is how many guests there would be, since this year's Victory Parade is being held at a time when the conflict in Ukraine, which Moscow started on February 24 and calls it a "special military operation", with the aim, as it was stated, of "denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine", as well as "protection of the population of Donbas", while most Western countries condemned the Russian intervention as aggression against Ukraine.

The conflict in Ukraine has been going on for more than 70 days, and for now, no one can say how it will end. That is why this year's Victory Parade in Moscow and the address of Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected with special attention.

In the Western media, speculations about what will happen on May 9 go to extremes - from Moscow's goal to end the conflict in Ukraine by Victory Day, to Putin declaring war on Ukraine and announcing a general mobilization.

The parades will also be held in 28 Russian cities, and about 65.000 people, 2.400 weapons units and more than 460 aircraft will take part in them. 11.000 soldiers and 131 weapons units will march through Red Square, and 77 planes and helicopters will fly over Moscow.

The parade on May 9 will be visually depicting the events in Ukraine, so eight MiG-29 planes above Red Square will make the letter Z, which Russian forces in Ukraine use as a sign of recognition, and for Moscow it has become one of the symbols of support for the operation in Ukraine.

At the general rehearsal held on May 7, the planes flew in that formation, and the parade company that is participating in the operation in Ukraine passed through Red Square on military vehicles.

During the USSR, the Victory Parade was held only on jubilee anniversaries, and since 1995 it has been held every year. The parade of the army and weapons is always held on Victory Day on May 9, except in 1945, when it was held on June 24 and in 2020, when the parade due to the coronavirus pandemic was moved from May 9 to June 24.

The Red Army Parade on June 24, 1945 was the first military parade held as part of the USSR victory over Nazi Germany, and its most impressive moment was when Soviet soldiers threw captured Nazi flags near the Mausoleum on Red Square. It lasted for two hours, and due to the rain, the aviation overflight was canceled.

The anthem of the USSR was then performed by 1.400 military musicians, and, according to the scientific research institute of the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, 12 marshals, 249 generals, 2.536 other officers and 31.116 sergeants and soldiers took part in the 1945 Parade.

The military parade is just one of the ways in which Russia constantly shows respect to the victims who sacrificed their lives in the fight against Nazism. The importance that Russia attaches to Victory Day is also shown by the fact that Russian astronauts developed the Victory Flag a few days ago when leaving the International Space Station in open space.

In recent years, in addition to celebrating the victory over Nazism with parades and paying tribute to the victims of that fight, Russia has also shown the latest models of weapons at the parades on Red Square.

Also, in his speeches on Red Square, Putin sent political messages, always emphasizing that the Soviet people had largely contributed in the victory over Nazism, that Russia would protect its national interests and would not allow history to be rewritten. Analytical centers tried to assume what messages might be expected today. One is the announcement of mobilization, heralding a general war in Ukraine.

"Declaring mobilization will make this war extremely unpopular. Is it technically possible at all? What can you do with mobilized people? Which members of the military unit will be able to deal with them?" said Pavel Luzin, a Russian military expert analyzing the scenario.

It has been speculated that Moscow could threaten with weapons of mass destruction, but it has been doing so almost since the beginning of the aggression. William Burns, director of the CIA, reiterated on Saturday that while US intelligence had seen no "practical evidence" that Russia was planning to deploy tactical nuclear weapons, "we cannot take this possibility lightly" given Russia's rattling with weapons.

State of emergency?

Reputable think tank Teneo states that "with the declaration of war and mobilization, a state of emergency could be expected in some regions or even the whole of Russia. In practice, the state of emergency would further strengthen political power in the hands of the president and regulating many aspects of political, social and personal life". Teneo notes that such a thing would be a consequence of the announcement of mobilization.

Among the more realistic scenarios, the announcement of the annexation of the areas occupied so far, including the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov and even Mariupol, stands out.

"The amendments to the Russian constitution from 2020 prohibit the giving of Russian territories, which means that the return of those territories through negotiations would become impossible. After the annexation, Moscow would treat any military threat to those regions as a threat to its own territory," Teneo explained.

If this process takes place, it still does not mean the end of the war, because Moscow will want to ensure sufficient strategic depth, especially the land bridge to Crimea. Ukraine is overwhelmed by the success of Kyiv's defense and new weapons, and does not intend to hand over parts of the country to Putin so easily.

Thus, it seems that Victory Day will be primarily a propaganda display of the alleged power of the Russian conventional forces that suffered a heavy defeat in Ukraine. Putin certainly wants to show a part of his nuclear capacities, and that threat remains, as Director Burns says, the greatest danger to the world now.