Fresh delays likely to Kosovo’s independence

Fresh delays likely to Kosovo’s independence

Now they face what some diplomats are calling the “the double disappointment” of additional delays that could push recognition of their new state back to late next summer or beyond.

In addition, the price of independence is expected to include many elements that they do not like.

In a series of interviews with senior European diplomats based in Pristina or dealing with Kosovo on a daily basis, they have made it clear that extended delays to the status question are now inevitable.

These reflect the need to find a consensus among the members of the Contact Group, especially Russia, and also the need to establish a “transition period” between a new UN resolution and what they call “status day”.

Last February, the UN asked Martti Ahtisaari, the former Finnish president, to work on finding a negotiated solution for Kosovo, which has been under UN jurisdiction since 1999.

Technically, Kosovo remains part of Serbia. However, at least 90 per cent of the 2 million population is made up of Albanians who demand independence.

It has long been expected that, as Serbian and Kosovo Albanians cannot agree on final status, Ahtisaari would recommend a package to the UN Security Council leading eventually to independence, albeit with conditions.

Ahtisaari had earlier indicated that he had planned to present his plan by now, while western diplomats had said they wanted Kosovo dealt with by the end of the year.

But in the wake of a referendum in Serbia on a new constitution reinforcing claims to Kosovo, and after the announcement of new elections in Serbia, Ahtisaari and the diplomats agreed to Serbian requests to delay Kosovo’s resolution until after the poll.

This was mainly because no one wanted to give any extra ammunition in the election campaign to the extreme nationalist Serbian Radical Party.

At this point it looked likely that Ahtisaari would present his plan in late January or early February 2007. But with Russia chairing the presidency of the UN Security Council in January and Slovakia in February, hopes now lie with Britain securing a new UN resolution to replace the existing 1999 Resolution 1244 during the UK tenure in March 2007.

The resolution is unlikely to mention the word “independence” but will instead open the way for individual countries to recognise the new state.

However, while Kosovo Albanians had assumed earlier that recognition would flow immediately after a new UN resolution, diplomatic sources are now indicating this may not happen.

They say they now expect a gap of several months between the new resolution and status day.

One reason for this transition period is that the resolution based on Ahtisaari’s recommendations will oblige Kosovo to make various changes before it can be recognised.

These will include incorporating minority rights clauses into a new constitution and decentralising local government, which may involve granting different rights to Kosovo Serb and Albanian dominated municipalities.

A second issue has already become the subject of a dispute between UN planners in New York and their EU counterparts.

The EU is to play a lead role the international body that will succeed the current UN mission UNMIK. But while the UN argues for a delay of up to six months between a new resolution and full handover to the planned International Civilian Office, ICO, and status day, the EU argues for a shorter transitional phase of three months.

If the UN prevails, and a new resolution is passed next March, recognition may not come before next September at the earliest.

It is also not a foregone conclusion that there will be a resolution in March, given the continuing strength of Russian opposition to Kosovo’s independence. One diplomat said, “It could take weeks but it could also take months.”

For now, no country wants to recognise an independent Kosovo outside the framework of a UN resolution, and if a resolution is not forthcoming, as one diplomat said, “There is no Plan B”.

Countries are unlikely to recognise Kosovo before status day, even if Kosovo’s parliament declares independence because the current UN Resolution 1244 will still apply.

The realisation that more delays are in the pipeline has given rise to concern from the most unexpected quarters. One senior Serbian official expressed fears now emerging that although Serbia had fought to get Russia to block Kosovo's independence, the consequences of success could in fact be negative for Serbia.

This official noted that if Russia blocked a UN resolution, or traded a resolution on Kosovo for other interests, fresh violence could well break out in the territory, sparking a new Serbian exodus from Kosovo and damaging foreign confidence and investment in Serbia.

This latter is a major calculation, as this year alone Serbia expects to receive four billion dollars worth of foreign direct investment.

In other words, no side is likely to end up happy with whatever happens in Kosovo.

In another blow to the Albanians, it also appears that the powers handed by the UN resolution to the ICO may be much greater than Kosovo Albanians now realise.

Those planning the ICO are drawing heavily on the model of the Office of the High Representative, OHR, in Bosnia and Herzegovina. So, says one diplomat, the International Civilian Representative, ICR, in Kosovo can be expected to enjoy “far reaching correctional powers”.

Although the international presence in Kosovo will have a different legal basis from UN Resolution 1244, in practical terms, he added, “people will virtually not see any difference”.

Tim Judah, a leading Balkan commentator, is the author of The Serbs: History, Myth and the Destruction of Yugoslavia, and Kosovo: War and Revenge. Balkan Insight is BIRN's online publication.