Fresh delays likely to Kosovo’s independence

very objective analysis my friend

Looks like Ceku will have to explain this new delay as best he can. I hope that no-one turns to violence as threatened and realise that negotiated talks will mean a compromise by all parties and can still be win-win for all. Just like the nationalists in Serbia need to moderate their actions so too the Albanians in Kosovo & Metohija need learn that violence has to stop.

The talks are just begining and will use the Ahtisari "proposal" as a starting basis.

I reiterate it is in all the peoples of Serbia's (including Albanians in Kosovo & Metohija) to work together and find a win-win solution that is acceptable to all. Only by working on finding the best solution acceptable to all will all the peoples of Serbia prosper. No one wishes for the status quo to continue and needs only look at Bosnia & Hercegovina to see what a fudged diplomatic solution that is imposed will bring - lose-lose and economic deprevation with a lack of economic progress for the future.

2007 is a new year and as such hopefully will be a new opportunity for the talks to progress for a better future for all in Serbia.

still doesn't change the fact that if it goes "even this well" for Mr. Ceku...

the constitution legally prohibits recognition of an indep K (conditional or not) by the parliament or PM (no one can legally sign the document). in the end - just another worthless security council resolution -- eternally debated by all sides... and hopelessly un-enforceable (since one of the signatories has not signed). one can point to many such resolutions... just look at the mid-east).

certainly the UN can try to force S to sign at some future date... But this takes time - a lot of time (especially due to all the precedents). And then how to get around the constitution?

-block EU entry? just talk. the region has already been blocked for the foreseable future

-sanctions? No universal support and bad for regional business (S is the regional hub & necessary for proper business functoning).

-block access to finance capital? Too late. (Austria, US, Norway, Russia, Greece, Italy are all in will not support) and finance capital seeks out the econmically ascendant (Serbia) not the economically stuck or economically dependent (Kosovo).

-bomb again for not signing?? Maybe in another world.

In other words, not much can be done to force Serbia into signing. Result? another unresolved world trouble spot policed by international mediators who will keep the status quo. bad for the people living there and an impediment to potential investors fearing legal issues when there are a lot of other places to invest without such headaches. In the meantime, S behaves just belligerant enough (but not too much) to make life difficult for everyone... until a more favorable climate exists for getting what it wants (probably partition and a tit-for-tat trade for Republika Srpska). Certainly a unilateral declaration can be used to offset this, but that has it's own problems... namely the loss of land north of the Ibar (which includes most of Trepca)... new troubles in Bosnia... And an embargo that will only lead to the "poorest country of europe... trading with the second poorest country of europe... trading with the third poorest country of europe (Kosovo, Albania, Macedonia). Not a promising future.

** by the way... judah's comments about $4B in FDI being jeopardized by successful blockage of a resolution is ridiculous. there is money to be made and K issues will not disrupt it. in short, the more EU countries that invest... the more EU countries that eventually vote against independence.

Anyone with an ounce of analytical thought can predict what is slowly taking place.

I propose Kosovo get independence on Mondays, Wednesday, and Fridays... and autonomy on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays. And that it be neutral on Saturday with a friendly soccer match alternating between Pritina and Belgrade (or the capitals of the Contact Group!)

very objective analysis my friend

Looks like Ceku will have to explain this new delay as best he can. I hope that no-one turns to violence as threatened and realise that negotiated talks will mean a compromise by all parties and can still be win-win for all. Just like the nationalists in Serbia need to moderate their actions so too the Albanians in Kosovo & Metohija need learn that violence has to stop.

The talks are just begining and will use the Ahtisari "proposal" as a starting basis.

I reiterate it is in all the peoples of Serbia's (including Albanians in Kosovo & Metohija) to work together and find a win-win solution that is acceptable to all. Only by working on finding the best solution acceptable to all will all the peoples of Serbia prosper. No one wishes for the status quo to continue and needs only look at Bosnia & Hercegovina to see what a fudged diplomatic solution that is imposed will bring - lose-lose and economic deprevation with a lack of economic progress for the future.

2007 is a new year and as such hopefully will be a new opportunity for the talks to progress for a better future for all in Serbia.

still doesn't change the fact that if it goes "even this well" for Mr. Ceku...

the constitution legally prohibits recognition of an indep K (conditional or not) by the parliament or PM (no one can legally sign the document). in the end - just another worthless security council resolution -- eternally debated by all sides... and hopelessly un-enforceable (since one of the signatories has not signed). one can point to many such resolutions... just look at the mid-east).

certainly the UN can try to force S to sign at some future date... But this takes time - a lot of time (especially due to all the precedents). And then how to get around the constitution?

-block EU entry? just talk. the region has already been blocked for the foreseable future

-sanctions? No universal support and bad for regional business (S is the regional hub & necessary for proper business functoning).

-block access to finance capital? Too late. (Austria, US, Norway, Russia, Greece, Italy are all in will not support) and finance capital seeks out the econmically ascendant (Serbia) not the economically stuck or economically dependent (Kosovo).

-bomb again for not signing?? Maybe in another world.

In other words, not much can be done to force Serbia into signing. Result? another unresolved world trouble spot policed by international mediators who will keep the status quo. bad for the people living there and an impediment to potential investors fearing legal issues when there are a lot of other places to invest without such headaches. In the meantime, S behaves just belligerant enough (but not too much) to make life difficult for everyone... until a more favorable climate exists for getting what it wants (probably partition and a tit-for-tat trade for Republika Srpska). Certainly a unilateral declaration can be used to offset this, but that has it's own problems... namely the loss of land north of the Ibar (which includes most of Trepca)... new troubles in Bosnia... And an embargo that will only lead to the "poorest country of europe... trading with the second poorest country of europe... trading with the third poorest country of europe (Kosovo, Albania, Macedonia). Not a promising future.

** by the way... judah's comments about $4B in FDI being jeopardized by successful blockage of a resolution is ridiculous. there is money to be made and K issues will not disrupt it. in short, the more EU countries that invest... the more EU countries that eventually vote against independence.

Anyone with an ounce of analytical thought can predict what is slowly taking place.

I propose Kosovo get independence on Mondays, Wednesday, and Fridays... and autonomy on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays. And that it be neutral on Saturday with a friendly soccer match alternating between Pritina and Belgrade (or the capitals of the Contact Group!)