Putin is just waiting...

Putin is just waiting...

Croatian military analyst from the Faculty of Political Sciences, Robert Barić says that attempts to seize Donetsk have stalled for the last seven days, after it seemed that the Russians would still have a greater advance towards Bakhmut.

"The fact is that the Russians started withdrawing their forces in July in order to strengthen the defense around Kherson, where it is estimated that a Ukrainian counter-offensive could one day follow," he explained.

According to him, what the Ukrainians are doing now, supported by American weapons, is a "shaping operation", that is, command centers are being attacked. "But the problem is the following - you cannot completely isolate the battlefield. You can make procurement and supply more difficult, but not cut off completely with just artillery strikes," he said.

Barić also believes that the Ukrainians attack the Russians almost minimally with anti-tank artillery because of the problems they have, but also because they do not have the strength for such a penetration.

"In the meantime, they are trying to occupy Kherson to show the West what they can do with modern weapons, because they are afraid, and Putin is counting on it, that the West will get tired, especially after this winter, when the economic consequences in Europe will be strong, so the support for Ukraine will be reduced," said Barić.

He added that the EU is deeply divided, and that Germany and France do not have enough strength to pressure Ukraine, while Putin is counting on it. He also says that the war will not end quickly.

"What is important is that it shows the psychological effect, there is no certainty. Together with partisan actions and guerilla wars in the south of Ukraine, the Russians are forced to devote part of their forces to internal security issues, which again complicates the Russian intention to hold a referendum," says Barić.

"This war would ideally end in the second half of next year, but Putin hopes to break the unity of the attack this winter, if not, he is preparing for a protracted war of attrition. The Ukrainians want by all means to reach Kherson. Watch out, in two month, it's winter there, but then this Ukrainian campaign to separate Russian forces can be helpful. We have little information, both sides are silent, but this war will not end quickly and will have, unfortunately, serious consequences," he says.

According to him, Germany and France brought Europe to this situation. "There is that energy transition that must be made. And finally, a good part of Europe is ready to continue supporting Ukraine, together with the USA, so I am not sure how accurate Putin's calculation is, we will see that in the coming months," concluded Barić.