Living in a true multi-polar (or non-polar) world

Living in a true multi-polar (or non-polar) world The reality is that the factors, which make up this new, complex world, have largely been present all along. They include international organizations, individual countries, ethnic groups, terrorist organizations, religions, businesses, organized international crime, media, non-governmental organizations, and even powerful individuals. What has happened in the past decade is that in large part thanks to its own actions (and inactions), the power of the United States in relation to the rest of the world has been reduced and just as importantly, this fact has been quickly absorbed by all of these other power centers. At the same time, many of other centers of power and influence have gained strength due to economic growth, oil and gas revenues, and other factors. There is a new assertiveness almost across the board, whether it is religious groups, ethnic minorities, countries, or non-governmental organizations. The nation-state is under attack from many sides with its powers and prerogatives increasingly constrained or even eliminated. To put it yet another way, the "playing field" has become far more level, giving all players more of an opportunity to assert themselves. A classic example is the challenge to China over the forthcoming Olympic games. China hoped to use the Games as a "coming out party" to show its new place in the world. Given the expectation that China's economic growth will continue, no nation really wants to antagonize China now and all are content to turn a blind eye to China's human rights record. Human rights groups had a different idea, however, and want to use the Games precisely to showcase those failings. The protests by Tibetans and supporters of their cause, particularly the efforts to block the Olympic Torch as it makes its way around the world have significantly raised the world's awareness of this issue and have generated strong domestic pressure on governments to speak out. The extensive media coverage given to their efforts has been an important factor in their success. Whatever happens from here on, the Games themselves have been significantly tarnished. The Chinese government is unable to comprehend that this could happen without collusion of Western governments. It is also unable to respond to the challenge in ways, which would defuse it. Old thinking in the new multi-polar world! The sub-prime debt crisis was basically caused because the banking industry in the United States lent more and more money to customers without sufficient collateral or funds to repay the mortgages, which they took out for houses far beyond their rational means. Many banks around the world, primarily in Europe, also without sufficient review, "bought" packets of these mortgages. When the housing bubble in the United States burst, almost overnight, there were literally millions of American homeowners facing default and foreclosure on their homes. The subsequent losses to banks in the United States and Europe are still being totaled, as each week seems to bring on announcements of still more billions of dollars of losses by banks. One of the main outcomes has been that banks have become afraid even to lend to each other and overall credit in the United States and Europe is drying up, leading to fears of recession. The housing markets in England, Spain, Ireland, and other countries are now facing staggering decreases in value. While one could argue that more effective oversight by the concerned governments may have prevented this crisis, the fact is that an event with enormous repercussions for the economies of the United States, Europe and much of the world happened in the main because of individual decisions of banks - not governments. Moreover, the impact is spreading far beyond the borders of the countries directly affected. Kosovo has now declared its independence, has drafted its constitution, and is recognized by about forty countries. At the same time, Serbia is contesting this action vigorously and along with Russian support, has prevented the UN from taking any action recognizing this independence. The situation on the ground is beginning to approach de facto partition and certainly the resolution of this conflict is a long way away. The determination of the Kosovo Albanian ethnic group to use violence to obtain independence from Serbia/Yugoslavia; the influence of the media in how it covered the Kosovo conflict in 1999; the determination of Serbia to refuse to accept the pressure of the U.S. and EU to give up its claim to Kosovo; and the support of Russia, including the willingness to veto any measures in the UN Security Council all show again the challenges of a multi-polar world. The efforts by the non-governmental organization, Greenpeace, as amply documented and sent around the world by the media has done more to shame Japan for its whale hunting operations than anything which any individual country has done. Ultimately, Japan will bow to this unique form of international pressure. The September 11 terrorist attacks by Al-Qaeda operatives using hijacked airliners to crash into the Pentagon and World Trade Center transformed the United States …and not in good ways. It launched the "War on Terror" which brought with it the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, the curtailment of American civil liberties, and the besmirching of America's reputation due to such scandals as the Abu Ghraib prison, Guantanamo Bay, and the revelations over the use of torture. Not to mention the trillions of dollars spent on the Iraqi War and on security measures, all of which has impacted on the American economy. And yet this all came about by the actions of around 50 or so individuals belonging to a terrorist organization using a few million dollars for training and logistics. Welcome to the multi-polar world where a superpower can be dealt a crippling blow by a few individuals armed only with "box-cutter" knives, which until that very moment were not even considered weapons. The standard line following the collapse of the Soviet Empire is that ultimately we in the West would miss it, because for better or worse, it imposed a certain degree of order and stability in the world. Much the same may now be said about the decade or so of the United States status as unopposed Super Power. The challenge that we all will face is to throw off our old conceptions and prejudices as to how the world works and recognize the new reality and the strength of all the power centers mentioned above. It is going to be chaotic and messy in any case. The true skill for diplomats and Presidents will be to understand the interplay of all these power centers; to choose which ones can be useful in bringing about a solution to a given problem; and then to work to bring it about. The decrease of the relative power and influence of the United States was inevitable, but not the speed of the fall or the depth. The task of the next President will be to strive to reverse this trend as much as possible. The keys to success include ending the drain on American resources in Iraq; re-establishing close ties to traditional allies and reaching out to other important countries (such as Iran) as well; improving the U.S. economic performance; and taking the world lead on issues such as alternative energy sources, global warming; and combating rising prices for basic commodities. None of the above is especially difficult. The end result will not be to restore a uni-polar world, but to position the United States to be a more effective and important player in it. Extensive media coverage: Olympic trouble in San Francisco (FoNet) What do Kosovo, the Olympic Torch, the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States, Japanese hunting for whales, and the sub-prime mortgage crisis have in common? The answer is that all of these situations are shaped and influenced by the multi-polar world in which we now live. William Montgomery "The decrease of the relative power and influence of the United States was inevitable, but not the speed of the fall or the depth. The task of the next President will be to strive to reverse this trend as much as possible."

Living in a true multi-polar (or non-polar) world

The reality is that the factors, which make up this new, complex world, have largely been present all along. They include international organizations, individual countries, ethnic groups, terrorist organizations, religions, businesses, organized international crime, media, non-governmental organizations, and even powerful individuals. What has happened in the past decade is that in large part thanks to its own actions (and inactions), the power of the United States in relation to the rest of the world has been reduced and just as importantly, this fact has been quickly absorbed by all of these other power centers.

At the same time, many of other centers of power and influence have gained strength due to economic growth, oil and gas revenues, and other factors. There is a new assertiveness almost across the board, whether it is religious groups, ethnic minorities, countries, or non-governmental organizations. The nation-state is under attack from many sides with its powers and prerogatives increasingly constrained or even eliminated. To put it yet another way, the "playing field" has become far more level, giving all players more of an opportunity to assert themselves.

A classic example is the challenge to China over the forthcoming Olympic games. China hoped to use the Games as a "coming out party" to show its new place in the world. Given the expectation that China's economic growth will continue, no nation really wants to antagonize China now and all are content to turn a blind eye to China's human rights record.

Human rights groups had a different idea, however, and want to use the Games precisely to showcase those failings. The protests by Tibetans and supporters of their cause, particularly the efforts to block the Olympic Torch as it makes its way around the world have significantly raised the world's awareness of this issue and have generated strong domestic pressure on governments to speak out.

The extensive media coverage given to their efforts has been an important factor in their success. Whatever happens from here on, the Games themselves have been significantly tarnished. The Chinese government is unable to comprehend that this could happen without collusion of Western governments. It is also unable to respond to the challenge in ways, which would defuse it. Old thinking in the new multi-polar world!

The sub-prime debt crisis was basically caused because the banking industry in the United States lent more and more money to customers without sufficient collateral or funds to repay the mortgages, which they took out for houses far beyond their rational means. Many banks around the world, primarily in Europe, also without sufficient review, "bought" packets of these mortgages. When the housing bubble in the United States burst, almost overnight, there were literally millions of American homeowners facing default and foreclosure on their homes. The subsequent losses to banks in the United States and Europe are still being totaled, as each week seems to bring on announcements of still more billions of dollars of losses by banks.

One of the main outcomes has been that banks have become afraid even to lend to each other and overall credit in the United States and Europe is drying up, leading to fears of recession. The housing markets in England, Spain, Ireland, and other countries are now facing staggering decreases in value. While one could argue that more effective oversight by the concerned governments may have prevented this crisis, the fact is that an event with enormous repercussions for the economies of the United States, Europe and much of the world happened in the main because of individual decisions of banks - not governments. Moreover, the impact is spreading far beyond the borders of the countries directly affected.

Kosovo has now declared its independence, has drafted its constitution, and is recognized by about forty countries. At the same time, Serbia is contesting this action vigorously and along with Russian support, has prevented the UN from taking any action recognizing this independence. The situation on the ground is beginning to approach de facto partition and certainly the resolution of this conflict is a long way away.

The determination of the Kosovo Albanian ethnic group to use violence to obtain independence from Serbia/Yugoslavia; the influence of the media in how it covered the Kosovo conflict in 1999; the determination of Serbia to refuse to accept the pressure of the U.S. and EU to give up its claim to Kosovo; and the support of Russia, including the willingness to veto any measures in the UN Security Council all show again the challenges of a multi-polar world.

The efforts by the non-governmental organization, Greenpeace, as amply documented and sent around the world by the media has done more to shame Japan for its whale hunting operations than anything which any individual country has done. Ultimately, Japan will bow to this unique form of international pressure.

The September 11 terrorist attacks by Al-Qaeda operatives using hijacked airliners to crash into the Pentagon and World Trade Center transformed the United States …and not in good ways. It launched the "War on Terror" which brought with it the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, the curtailment of American civil liberties, and the besmirching of America's reputation due to such scandals as the Abu Ghraib prison, Guantanamo Bay, and the revelations over the use of torture.

Not to mention the trillions of dollars spent on the Iraqi War and on security measures, all of which has impacted on the American economy. And yet this all came about by the actions of around 50 or so individuals belonging to a terrorist organization using a few million dollars for training and logistics. Welcome to the multi-polar world where a superpower can be dealt a crippling blow by a few individuals armed only with "box-cutter" knives, which until that very moment were not even considered weapons.

The standard line following the collapse of the Soviet Empire is that ultimately we in the West would miss it, because for better or worse, it imposed a certain degree of order and stability in the world. Much the same may now be said about the decade or so of the United States status as unopposed Super Power.

The challenge that we all will face is to throw off our old conceptions and prejudices as to how the world works and recognize the new reality and the strength of all the power centers mentioned above. It is going to be chaotic and messy in any case. The true skill for diplomats and Presidents will be to understand the interplay of all these power centers; to choose which ones can be useful in bringing about a solution to a given problem; and then to work to bring it about.

The decrease of the relative power and influence of the United States was inevitable, but not the speed of the fall or the depth. The task of the next President will be to strive to reverse this trend as much as possible. The keys to success include ending the drain on American resources in Iraq; re-establishing close ties to traditional allies and reaching out to other important countries (such as Iran) as well; improving the U.S. economic performance; and taking the world lead on issues such as alternative energy sources, global warming; and combating rising prices for basic commodities. None of the above is especially difficult. The end result will not be to restore a uni-polar world, but to position the United States to be a more effective and important player in it.