The war in Iran has exposed devastating weaknesses; NATO is not ready for a war with Russia: Here's why...

Although NATO does not directly participate in the US–Israeli war in Iran, this conflict has exposed serious weaknesses in the Alliance’s defense capabilities. The Politico portal brings an analysis showing that the West, from ammunition shortages to neglected navies, could face serious problems in the event of a Russian attack.

“Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are not separate phenomena; we can learn a great deal from both when thinking about the wars of the future,” warns General Dominique Tardif, deputy head of the French Air and Space Force.

European military officials are increasingly warning that Moscow could be militarily capable of attacking a NATO member state as early as 2029. This highlights the urgent need for combat readiness and political unity. Politico spoke with dozens of diplomats, former and current NATO officials, and defense experts, and based on those conversations identified five key weaknesses exposed by the war in the Middle East.

Alarming ammunition shortages

The war in Iran has brought into focus NATO’s chronic ammunition shortages. The United States has already used up about half of its total stock of key Patriot air-defense missiles, while French officials warned that their Aster and Mica missile stocks were already running low within the first two weeks of the war. Defense companies such as Rheinmetall and MBDA have also warned about huge demand and looming shortages.

If the US continues shifting focus to the Indo-Pacific, “significant resources will be withdrawn” from Europe, a senior NATO diplomat notes. The situation is further complicated by Russian production. Moscow produces between 6,000 and 7,000 attack drones per month, meaning NATO allies could run out of expensive air-defense missiles within weeks, argues Justin Bronk, a senior researcher at the RUSI institute. He suggests moving toward cheaper alternatives such as laser-guided AGR-20 missiles and building reinforced concrete aircraft shelters.

Limits of air dominance

Iran’s ability to continue launching more than 5,000 missile and drone attacks against neighboring Gulf states, despite a US air campaign, demonstrates clear limits to the expectation that conventional air power alone can “bomb a country into submission,” says Peter W. Singer of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

As a result, NATO must rethink air superiority and look for creative deterrence solutions against Russia. This includes accelerated investment in long-range weapons such as the US AGM-88G missile (range up to 300 km), which could target Russian drone production and military sites deep inside Russian territory.

Weak and neglected navies

Limited European involvement in supporting Gulf allies has revealed decades of neglect of NATO navies. The clearest example is the United Kingdom. After taking three weeks to deploy the destroyer HMS Dragon to the Mediterranean, the ship was returned to port due to a technical malfunction.

British naval chief Admiral Gwyn Jenkins recently admitted that the Royal Navy is not ready for war, while Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that fewer than half of Canada’s fleet is operational. In a potential conflict with Moscow, navies would be crucial for hunting Russian submarines near the Kola Peninsula and neutralizing ships armed with Kalibr cruise missiles.

Chronic political disunity

The war has deepened divisions within NATO itself. Europe rejected US President Donald Trump’s requests for military support, prompting Washington to prepare retaliation options. Trump, for his part, continues to criticize NATO, calling it a “paper tiger.”

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Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen believes that European capitals should adopt Trump’s “transactional approach” — clearly linking their support for opening the Strait of Hormuz with Washington’s commitment to the Alliance. He also criticized attempts by current NATO chief Mark Rutte to appease the US president, saying that “the time for flattery is over.”

Key role of Ukraine

Just days after the start of the war in Iran, Ukraine sent its drone specialists, who have extensive experience in downing Iranian Shahed drones used by Russia, to assist countries across the Middle East. Kyiv soon also signed ten-year defense partnerships with Gulf states.

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NATO is rapidly expanding institutional ties with Ukraine, from a joint training center in Poland to the new UNITE-Brave NATO industrial programme for the procurement of innovative Ukrainian technology. As one NATO diplomat told Politico: “Ukraine is now acting as a security provider. The war in Iran has proven that”.