Pakistan on edge: Between Iran, the U.S., and a war that could escalate

Pakistan’s role as a mediator in the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has surprised many. However, Pakistan’s position is not accidental.

Chief of the Armed Forces Asim Munir enjoys the favor of U.S. President Donald Trump. The American leader often calls him his favorite general and has previously stated that Munir knows Iran “better than most.”

Iran is not only Pakistan’s neighbor, sharing a 900-kilometer border, but according to its own statements, it also has deep cultural and religious ties with the country.

So far, Pakistan has walked a fine line between Iran and the U.S., exchanging messages between the two sides and facilitating diplomatic phone calls. But this balancing act is not without risks.

Pakistan is heavily dependent on oil imports, much of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

“If the war continues, economic pressures in Pakistan will increase enormously,” says Farhan Siddiqui, a political science professor at the Institute of Business Administration.

There is also concern about what escalation could bring. Last September, Pakistan signed a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, agreeing that “any aggression against either country will be considered aggression against both.”

This raises the question of what Pakistan would do if Saudi Arabia joined the war and invoked the pact.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar is traveling to China today at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.

Pakistan also does not have U.S. airbases. Unlike many typical Gulf mediators, it has not yet been drawn into the conflict.

A U.S.-Iran peace, analysts believe, would be in Pakistan’s interest.

Still, questions arise about how a country already involved in conflicts with Afghanistan and India has positioned itself as a peacemaker.

The country is currently conducting airstrikes in Afghanistan, and tensions with India only last year sparked fears of nuclear escalation.