The Russians plan to kill him

The Russians plan to kill him

In a new episode of the great power struggle for influence in Africa, Washington and Moscow continue to use their strongest trump cards, and this time the center of that conflict is the African country of Chad.

The United States warns of Russia's malicious plans on the continent, shares intelligence from its capable secret services, while Russia tries, and succeeds, to increase its influence in Africa, especially at the expense of France, using anti-colonial rhetoric.

In recent weeks and months, a real drama has been unfolding in Chad.

The large country, larger than Great Britain, Germany and France combined, is home to 17 million people and borders Libya, the Central African Republic and Sudan, three of which are home to Russia's Wagner paramilitary unit, led by Vladimir Putin's ally Yevgeny Prigozhin.

A few weeks ago, the Wall Street Journal reported that the United States had provided the Chadian government with intelligence suggesting that Wagner wanted to destabilize the country and possibly assassinate its president, Mahamat Idriss Déby.

Many of these U.S. actions are reminiscent of the sharing of intelligence with Kyiv about an impending Russian invasion early last year, which, after the attack actually happened despite the disbelief of even Ukraine, raised the profile of US intelligence.

They previously lost much of their reputation after the false claims that led to the invasion of Iraq 20 years ago. The president of Chad is Mahamat Idriss Déby, who came to the head of the country in 2021 as the son of the murdered dictator. Many remember the death of his father, Idriss Déby, who had been president for 30 years, and left alone to lead his army units in the fight against insurgents, eventually dying on the battlefield, which was widely reported.

It is not known how much the Chadian government believes US intelligence reports that Russian troops are ready to kill their president as well as several other members of the government, but some African leaders anonymously told the newspaper that it took them seriously.

On the other hand, Russia is trying to gain sympathy from Chad's political elite.

US intelligence sharing with African governments is a new method of combating Moscow's influence on the continent, after US ally France has lost considerable influence in Africa in just a few years. Paris had to withdraw its army from Mali and Burkina Faso, at the request of the governments there.

In some cases, the vacuum was filled by the Russian army, or paramilitary troops from Wagner, which is most often mentioned in Europe for its highly controversial role in the fight in Ukraine, primarily for the city of Bakhmut.

So far, Wagner has sent his paramilitary forces to several countries on the continent, in exchange for money or resources, to help the governments there fight the Islamists. But the Wagnerites were also accused of war crimes. America wants to prevent the spread of that paramilitary, so it was ready to give key intelligence to Chad.

"Wherever Wagner was present, bad things inevitably followed," said Secretary of State Antony Blinken during a visit to Niger, according to the New York Times.

Joe Biden's administration is also announcing major investments in the continent, which could prove more popular than the great power struggle for influence in Africa, which many analysts and African leaders are recalling the Cold War.

Many African states openly say they refuse to side with the US, France, Russia or China, which have also greatly increased their influence on the continent. On the other hand, Russia also says it wants to provide more help to African governments in the fight against terrorism.

During a recent visit to Mali, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he was ready to send troops to Guinea, Burkina Faso and Chad for this reason.

Like American officials who visit African countries, Lavrov traveled to seven countries of the Black Continent this year alone.

In the current struggle for influence in Africa, Western countries also face the danger of turning their eyes away from issues of democracy and human rights, so as not to unduly irritate the authoritarian African leaders they want to win over.

"It would be a big mistake for President Biden to side with Déby. In the long term, the best way to protect your interests in Chad is to bet on democracy," Chadian opposition leader Succès Masra, who had to leave the country, told the New York Times.