Analyst: Mladić may not be hiding in Serbia

A STRATFOR analyst says it is possible that Hague fugitives Ratko Mladić and Goran Hadžić are not hiding in Serbia, but in some other country.

Izvor: Tanjug

Wednesday, 03.11.2010.

14:54

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A STRATFOR analyst says it is possible that Hague fugitives Ratko Mladic and Goran Hadzic are not hiding in Serbia, but in some other country. That country may not really want Serbia to be successful on its path to the European Union, Marko Papic told RFE/RL. Analyst: Mladic may not be hiding in Serbia Papic also evaluated that Belgrade's determination to arrest Mladic and Hadzic is indisputable but that there are obstacles, such as those for which America is not able to arrest Bin Laden. "According to our estimates, Serbia's biggest problem at present are Hague indictees Ratko Mladic and Goran Hadzic, but in the long run, there is a threat to Serbia even if it does manage to deliver Mladic and Hadzic, because Kosovo might again be imposed as an obstacle since everything is in the hands of Brussels," the analyst was quoted as saying. Asked about the money offered for information leading to Mladic's arrest - now at EUR 10mn - Papic underscored that STRATFOR believed that this government was determined from the very beginning to arrest Mladic and Hadzic. "Raising the rewards should remind us of that intent, but it is mainly a marketing move ahead of the visit by Hague Chief Prosecutor Serge Brammertz.However, the marketing move does not mean that Serbia is less determined to arrest the fugitives," believes Papic. He also spoke about Kosovo to say that the ethnic Albanian side is being pressured to start a dialogue with Belgrade and added that the talks should begin by February or March 2011 at the latest. "As STRATFOR has published before, pressure to shortly begin dialogue has definitely been put on the Albanian side. Both the United States and the European Union have clearly told Pristina that they will no longer provide unconditional support on this issue,“ Papic said for Radio Free Europe. He stated that Pristina has been delaying the process due to its internal political situation. “Dialogue should start in February or March 2011, if not sooner, depending on the pressure the USA and Europe will put on Pristina and whether it proves effective,” Papic concluded.

Analyst: Mladić may not be hiding in Serbia

Papić also evaluated that Belgrade's determination to arrest Mladić and Hadžić is indisputable but that there are obstacles, such as those for which America is not able to arrest Bin Laden.

"According to our estimates, Serbia's biggest problem at present are Hague indictees Ratko Mladić and Goran Hadžić, but in the long run, there is a threat to Serbia even if it does manage to deliver Mladić and Hadžić, because Kosovo might again be imposed as an obstacle since everything is in the hands of Brussels," the analyst was quoted as saying.

Asked about the money offered for information leading to Mladić's arrest - now at EUR 10mn - Papić underscored that STRATFOR believed that this government was determined from the very beginning to arrest Mladić and Hadžić.

"Raising the rewards should remind us of that intent, but it is mainly a marketing move ahead of the visit by Hague Chief Prosecutor Serge Brammertz.However, the marketing move does not mean that Serbia is less determined to arrest the fugitives," believes Papić.

He also spoke about Kosovo to say that the ethnic Albanian side is being pressured to start a dialogue with Belgrade and added that the talks should begin by February or March 2011 at the latest.

"As STRATFOR has published before, pressure to shortly begin dialogue has definitely been put on the Albanian side. Both the United States and the European Union have clearly told Priština that they will no longer provide unconditional support on this issue,“ Papić said for Radio Free Europe.

He stated that Priština has been delaying the process due to its internal political situation.

“Dialogue should start in February or March 2011, if not sooner, depending on the pressure the USA and Europe will put on Priština and whether it proves effective,” Papić concluded.

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