The "Hail Mary" pass

The "Hail Mary" pass This means that you throw the football as far down the field as you can and pray to God (thus the "Hail Mary") that someone on your team somehow catches the ball and falls into the end zone for the winning touchdown. It succeeds once in a hundred times, but if it is the only chance one has, there is little choice but to try. Boris Tadic won the recent Serbian Presidential Election because he was successful in framing it as a referendum on "the European path or Isolation." This led to a very high voter turnout and ultimately an uncomfortably narrow victory for President Tadic and the "pro-European" forces. Unfortunately for DS/G17 Plus, polling shows that this strategy has not (at least thus far) been nearly as effective in the current campaign for the May 11 Parliamentary elections. The electorate seems to be ignoring this either-or scenario and inclined to vote along traditional party lines. There is a growing sense of resignation and discouragement among those Serbs who see their "European" future growing more distant rather than closer. What this means is that barring a major change in voter attitude between now and Election Day: -A majority in the new Parliament will be composed of parties whose basic orientation is "nationalist." This includes the Radicals, the Socialist Party, and the DSS/NS coalition. -It is most likely that the same three parties will form the ruling government coalition. -For the DS/G17 Plus to form the government under the likely voter turnout at this time, they would have to come to terms with either DSS or the Socialist Party and end up with the same sort of dysfunctional government, which has been in place for some years now. Given the major differences among them - and the DSS and SDP approach to Kosovo - it is hard to see how this can possibly work if the DS/G17 Plus intends to be loyal to its political convictions. In the face of this discouraging assessment, the DS/G17 Plus is trying the Serbian equivalent of a "Hail Mary" pass. They are hoping that by persuading the European Union to present a "road map" for how Serbia can get on the Schengen visa "White List" and signing a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) before the elections will be enough to convince voters that the European Path is open and concrete benefits are a reality - not a distant and vague promise. The strategy is that these steps will help to turn the upcoming elections once again into a referendum on "isolation or European integration." The vicious attacks on the signing of the SAA by the Radicals and Prime Minister Kostunica are helping to play into this sort of scenario. There are several problems with this "Hail Mary" strategy, however: -The European Union has been so blatant about its preferences in the upcoming election and its motivations in offering the SAA that it has, at least among some Serbs, become counter-productive. It has become a campaign issue itself. -Both the "visa map" and the SAA will have conditions and requirements attached to them, which make their actual implementation problematic. This will rob them of a lot of their value. Even the Head of the Serbian government's Office for EU integration acknowledged "Serbia still had a lot of work to do before reaching the White List." Brussels has made it clear that actual implementation of the SAA will depend on Serbian fulfillment of the old condition of "full cooperation with the ICTY. -In the long run, offering the SAA and the visa agreement in the pre-election period has politicized both documents in an unhealthy way. The chances that this approach might resonate with the voters has led Vojislav Kostunica and others to make statements such as "Those who hide these facts become accomplices of Solana's agreement's (the SAA) real goal, and that is the breakup of Serbia and her recognition of the unilateral independence of this fake creation" and anyone who signs the SAA would be "an accomplice to tearing Serbia apart." While it is correct that Kostunica and the Radicals would probably have ended up opposing the SAA and "visa map" in any case, the timing of the offers made this a certainty and the rhetoric used will make it much harder for these individuals and parties to ever reverse course. This has to have an impact on Serbian relations with the EU, regardless of what happens in the coming elections. -Finally, and most importantly, the DS/G17 Plus campaign has focused so much energy on persuading the EU to grant the SAA (the "Hail Mary" pass) and in defending it against consistent DSS attacks, that it has not presented a comprehensive, forceful campaign dealing with the specific issues which concern voters and explaining in detail exactly what the dangers of a Radical victory would be. The high percentage of voters dissatisfied with the results of the post-Milosevic era will rightly be asking why parties, which have been in power for a majority of this period, should be given still another chance. The fact is that the DS/G17 Plus coalition has allowed its opponents to dictate the agenda of the election campaign. Moreover it has run a lethargic campaign, which lacks the sense of urgency and crisis, which they need to generate to get voters to turn out as they did in the Presidential elections. Their announced willingness post-election to discuss possible coalitions with the DSS and SDP, despite the radical differences in political viewpoints with these parties, gives the perception of caring more about power than principle. So it does seem like the remaining alternative is to throw that football into the air and say…"Hail Mary." It just might work. The Hail Mary pass: the SAA signing (Beta) In American football when a team is losing a close game in the final seconds and is far away from its goal line, the only option left is called a "Hail Mary" pass. William Montgomery "The DS/G17 Plus coalition has allowed its opponents to dictate the agenda of the election campaign. Moreover it has run a lethargic campaign, which lacks the sense of urgency and crisis, which they need to generate to get voters to turn out as they did in the Presidential elections."

The "Hail Mary" pass

This means that you throw the football as far down the field as you can and pray to God (thus the "Hail Mary") that someone on your team somehow catches the ball and falls into the end zone for the winning touchdown. It succeeds once in a hundred times, but if it is the only chance one has, there is little choice but to try.

Boris Tadić won the recent Serbian Presidential Election because he was successful in framing it as a referendum on "the European path or Isolation." This led to a very high voter turnout and ultimately an uncomfortably narrow victory for President Tadić and the "pro-European" forces.

Unfortunately for DS/G17 Plus, polling shows that this strategy has not (at least thus far) been nearly as effective in the current campaign for the May 11 Parliamentary elections. The electorate seems to be ignoring this either-or scenario and inclined to vote along traditional party lines.

There is a growing sense of resignation and discouragement among those Serbs who see their "European" future growing more distant rather than closer. What this means is that barring a major change in voter attitude between now and Election Day:

-A majority in the new Parliament will be composed of parties whose basic orientation is "nationalist." This includes the Radicals, the Socialist Party, and the DSS/NS coalition.

-It is most likely that the same three parties will form the ruling government coalition.

-For the DS/G17 Plus to form the government under the likely voter turnout at this time, they would have to come to terms with either DSS or the Socialist Party and end up with the same sort of dysfunctional government, which has been in place for some years now. Given the major differences among them - and the DSS and SDP approach to Kosovo - it is hard to see how this can possibly work if the DS/G17 Plus intends to be loyal to its political convictions.

In the face of this discouraging assessment, the DS/G17 Plus is trying the Serbian equivalent of a "Hail Mary" pass. They are hoping that by persuading the European Union to present a "road map" for how Serbia can get on the Schengen visa "White List" and signing a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) before the elections will be enough to convince voters that the European Path is open and concrete benefits are a reality - not a distant and vague promise.

The strategy is that these steps will help to turn the upcoming elections once again into a referendum on "isolation or European integration." The vicious attacks on the signing of the SAA by the Radicals and Prime Minister Koštunica are helping to play into this sort of scenario.

There are several problems with this "Hail Mary" strategy, however:

-The European Union has been so blatant about its preferences in the upcoming election and its motivations in offering the SAA that it has, at least among some Serbs, become counter-productive. It has become a campaign issue itself.

-Both the "visa map" and the SAA will have conditions and requirements attached to them, which make their actual implementation problematic. This will rob them of a lot of their value. Even the Head of the Serbian government's Office for EU integration acknowledged "Serbia still had a lot of work to do before reaching the White List." Brussels has made it clear that actual implementation of the SAA will depend on Serbian fulfillment of the old condition of "full cooperation with the ICTY.

-In the long run, offering the SAA and the visa agreement in the pre-election period has politicized both documents in an unhealthy way. The chances that this approach might resonate with the voters has led Vojislav Koštunica and others to make statements such as "Those who hide these facts become accomplices of Solana's agreement's (the SAA) real goal, and that is the breakup of Serbia and her recognition of the unilateral independence of this fake creation" and anyone who signs the SAA would be "an accomplice to tearing Serbia apart."

While it is correct that Koštunica and the Radicals would probably have ended up opposing the SAA and "visa map" in any case, the timing of the offers made this a certainty and the rhetoric used will make it much harder for these individuals and parties to ever reverse course. This has to have an impact on Serbian relations with the EU, regardless of what happens in the coming elections.

-Finally, and most importantly, the DS/G17 Plus campaign has focused so much energy on persuading the EU to grant the SAA (the "Hail Mary" pass) and in defending it against consistent DSS attacks, that it has not presented a comprehensive, forceful campaign dealing with the specific issues which concern voters and explaining in detail exactly what the dangers of a Radical victory would be. The high percentage of voters dissatisfied with the results of the post-Milosevic era will rightly be asking why parties, which have been in power for a majority of this period, should be given still another chance.

The fact is that the DS/G17 Plus coalition has allowed its opponents to dictate the agenda of the election campaign. Moreover it has run a lethargic campaign, which lacks the sense of urgency and crisis, which they need to generate to get voters to turn out as they did in the Presidential elections.

Their announced willingness post-election to discuss possible coalitions with the DSS and SDP, despite the radical differences in political viewpoints with these parties, gives the perception of caring more about power than principle. So it does seem like the remaining alternative is to throw that football into the air and say…"Hail Mary." It just might work.