If Erdogan loses - how will it affect Serbia and the Balkans?

If Erdogan loses - how will it affect Serbia and the Balkans?

There is no doubt that the presidential and parliamentary elections are very important for Turkey because they will determine the fate and course of its political and economic future.

Turkey is facing many challenges: economic, political and diplomatic, tensions in the relations of the current government with some European and regional states, including the USA and the European Union. As a reminder, after the results on Sunday, it is clear that Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu are going to the second round of the presidential elections.

Given the importance of Turkey as a regional power, the election results will have implications for the entire region and international relations, states the International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana in its analysis of the extraordinary presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey.

As a member of NATO, Turkey plays an important role regionally and internationally, including the Syrian crisis, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the civil war in Libya and the war in Ukraine, where Erdogan is the only Western leader who maintains excellent relations with Russia and Putin.

Political analyst Michel Zubenica commented on the elections in Turkey for B92.net and stated that absolutely anything is possible.

"Very uncertain elections, but Erdogan as a presidential candidate and his coalition achieved a better result in the parliamentary elections than the pre-election polls showed. In the second round, absolutely everything is possible, the important question will be who will be supported by other political actors who have influence in the electorate. The elections are of great importance for the whole world because Turkey is an important geopolitical player at the global level," Zubenica told B92.net.

He also stated that the Balkans is Turkey's sphere of interest, but explained that it is not among the priorities. In addition, Zubenica believes that Turkey's policy would be harmonized with the European Union, if Erdogan were to lose the elections.

"For the Balkan countries, the situation in Turkey is very important because this area is one of the spheres of interest in their foreign policy. (If Erdogan were to lose), Turkish policy would be more aligned with the policy of the Western powers," he explained.

When asked if this would mean that there is a possibility to strengthen the pressure on Serbia, he said:

"Turkey has enough of its own problems. Whoever wins, Serbia will not be among Ankara's priorities," he said.