Trump has two options to end the war with Iran – Neither is good

Trump faces two options: strike a potentially flawed deal and withdraw, or escalate militarily and risk a prolonged conflict that could consume his presidency.

Despite extensive diplomatic efforts, Trump is ending another week of the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign struggling to contain the growing crisis in the Middle East, while a defiant Iran maintains control over oil and gas shipments from the Gulf and continues missile and drone attacks across the region.

The central question now, analysts say, is whether Trump is willing to scale back or intensify what critics call a “war of choice”—one that has triggered the worst global energy supply shock in history and expanded far beyond the region.

Trump has told aides he wants to avoid a “forever war” and find a negotiated exit, urging them to emphasize the four- to six-week duration of hostilities he publicly cited, a senior White House official said, adding that such a timeline appears “uncertain.”

At the same time, Trump has threatened major military escalation if negotiations fail.

Urgent search for a solution

Trump’s diplomatic engagements with Iran, including a 15-point peace proposal sent via a back channel through Pakistan, appear to reflect an increasingly urgent search for a way out. However, it remains unclear whether there are currently realistic prospects for productive talks.

“President Trump has poor options for ending the war,” said Jonathan Panikoff, former U.S. Deputy National Intelligence Officer for the Middle East. “Part of the challenge is the lack of clarity on what would constitute a satisfactory outcome.”

A White House official insisted that the campaign in Iran “will end when the Commander-in-Chief determines our objectives have been met,” and that Trump has set explicit goals.

Clearly hedging his bets, Trump is deploying thousands more U.S. troops to the region and warning Iran of an intensified attack, possibly including the use of ground forces, if it does not yield to his demands.

Analysts say such a show of force could be aimed at gaining concessions from Tehran, but risks drawing the U.S. into a protracted conflict, and any boots-on-the-ground commitment in Iran would likely anger many American voters.

Another major strike?

Another possible scenario, experts say, would be for the U.S. to carry out a final major airstrike in “Operation Epic Fury” to further weaken Iranian military capabilities and nuclear facilities, after which Trump could declare victory and depart, claiming his war objectives have been achieved.

But such a claim would ring hollow unless the vital Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, which Iran has so far refused to allow. Trump has expressed frustration over European allies’ refusal to send warships to help secure the shipping route.

Trump, who has repeatedly promised to keep the U.S. out of foreign conflicts, is clearly struggling to contain the growing war he began alongside Israel. Even as he continued issuing triumphant assessments, he increasingly directed his messages toward calming nervous financial markets, pressuring senior aides to emphasize that the war would soon end, a senior White House official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

But the lack of a clear exit strategy poses risks both to Trump’s presidential legacy and to his party’s prospects, as Republicans fight to defend their slim majority in Congress in the upcoming November midterm elections.

Misjudging Iran’s retaliation

Trump’s biggest miscalculation has been the scale of Tehran’s retaliation. Iran has used its remaining missiles and drones to strike Israel and neighboring Gulf states and has largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, a channel for a fifth of the world’s oil, sending shockwaves through the global economy.

“The Iranian government is betting they can endure more pain longer than their opponents—and they may be right,” said Jon Alterman of the Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies.

A White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Trump and his team are “well prepared” for an Iranian response in the strait and are confident it will soon reopen.

Nevertheless, the clearest sign of Trump’s growing concern about the war came Monday with his dramatic retreat from a threat to destroy Iran’s power grid if it did not allow shipping to continue through the strait.

In a move seen as an attempt to calm markets, he declared a five-day pause in executing his threat to give diplomacy a chance. On Thursday, he extended it for another ten days.

Rising Domestic Pressure

Meanwhile, pressure at home is mounting.

Public opinion polls show the war is highly unpopular among Americans. While Trump’s MAGA movement has largely stood with him, his influence on his political base could weaken if the economic impact, including high gas prices, persists.

Trump’s overall approval rating has fallen to 36%, the lowest level since his return to the White House, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Monday.

The White House is increasingly concerned about the political fallout from the war, a former senior Trump administration official told Reuters, citing worries expressed by Republican lawmakers about the upcoming midterm elections.

Tramp Tanjug/AP/Mark Schiefelbein (STF)

As a sign of growing unrest among Republicans, U.S. Representative Mike Rogers, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, criticized the administration on Thursday for not providing enough information about the scope of Iran’s campaign.

In response, a White House official said that Trump’s aides had repeatedly briefed Congress both before and during the war.

For now, however, the diplomatic path offers no easy solutions.

The 15-point plan presented by Trump is similar to what Iran largely rejected in pre-war negotiations and includes some elements that would be difficult to implement. The demands range from dismantling Iran’s nuclear program and limiting its missile arsenal to abandoning its proxy groups and effectively surrendering control over the strait.

Iran has called the U.S. proposal unfair and unrealistic—though it has not ruled out further indirect contacts.

Iran does not trust Trump

While Trump insisted Thursday that Iran should “beg” for a deal, analysts say the country’s leaders appear in no hurry to negotiate an end to the conflict, believing they can claim victory simply by surviving.

The replacement of some leaders killed in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes with even more hardline successors, analysts note, signals that the Iranian leadership clearly does not trust Trump, who twice launched airstrikes in the past year while both sides were still negotiating.

Šef iranske diplomatije Abas Aragči tokom poslednje runde pregovora AA/ABACA / Abaca Press / Profimedia

“The president is willing to listen, but if they do not accept the reality of the moment, they will be hit harder than ever before,” a White House official said.

Israeli officials, meanwhile, have signaled concern that Trump could make concessions that might tie their hands in further attacks on Iran.

Washington’s Gulf allies could also object to a hasty U.S. withdrawal, as they might be left facing a wounded, hostile neighbor.

“Trump sends mixed signals”

If Trump is truly willing to deploy ground forces, he could seize Iran’s oil hub on Kharg Island or other strategic islands, conduct operations along its coast, or send special forces for what would be a complex attempt to capture stocks of highly enriched uranium believed to have been largely buried by U.S.-Israeli bombing last June.

Such moves could escalate into a broader conflict reminiscent of the long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan—wars that Trump had promised the U.S. would never be drawn into under his watch. They would also risk increasing American casualties and raise further questions about the objectives of the U.S. mission.

Gulf allies have warned the administration against putting U.S. troops on the ground in Iran, saying it could provoke greater retaliation from Tehran, potentially targeting their energy and civilian infrastructure, a senior Gulf official who wished to remain anonymous said.

A White House official said that Trump has made it clear “he has no plans to send ground troops anywhere at this time,” but added that he always keeps all options on the table.

For now, Trump keeps the world in uncertainty—at one moment making statements aimed at calming volatile markets, and the next issuing threats that push energy prices higher.

“Trump is sending contradictory signals,” said Laura Blumenfeld of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. “He is a one-man ‘fog of war’ messaging machine designed to keep opponents off balance.”