Moscow has a terrifying plan? The consequences will be dire

Moscow has a terrifying plan? The consequences will be dire

As Kyiv's counter-offensive continues into its fourth month, with limited success and several Russian counterattacks, it is becoming clear that Moscow's plan may be to let Ukraine exhaust its men, tanks, shells and missiles against the strongest Surovikin Line, Jutarnji List reports.

The thinking may be that once Ukraine's maneuver forces equipped and trained with Western help are destroyed, Russia will be able to launch its own major offensive, perhaps as early as January.

After nearly two years of fighting that has been compared more to World War I than World War II, the plan is reminiscent of Germany's Kaiserschlacht, the spring offensive that began in March 1918 and pushed back opponents, capturing more territory than either side had taken in the previous four years of war.

This was achieved by the Germans letting the Germans "bleed out" while building up huge reserves of men and weapons behind the lines, ready to launch a devastating attack similar to what the British had intended, but failed to achieve, during the Battle of the Somme in 1916.

The problem for Putin is that, while trying to grind down the Ukrainian forces, he is consuming huge amounts of ammunition, especially artillery shells and ballistic missiles, and a very large number of tanks.

While Russia has a larger military industrial output than much of the West and continues to mobilize tens of thousands of men every quarter on a regular basis, its stockpiles remain insufficient for the level of expenditure required for a new major offensive.

This is where Pyongyang could step in. North Korea has been sending large quantities of shells, rockets and missiles to Russia for at least a year, according to the West, and a large number of shipments are organized by the late Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner group.

It is also recalled that Putin's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was also in Pyongyang recently. North Korea has large stockpiles of heavy weapons and artillery ammunition. Many of the weapons are old and unreliable, but that won't matter if Russia resorts to its old tactics for victory: using sheer numbers, driving the enemy like the Germans in 1918.

On the other hand, Russia's support also uses Kim as a tool to strike back at the US, with the unequivocal approval of Beijing. But, the British paper further states, North Korea's support will not come without a heavy price.

Crippled by Western sanctions, Pyongyang desperately needs the oil, food, fertilizer and raw materials Russia has in abundance. But of greater concern is the possibility of supplying North Korea with hard currency and technology for the North's nuclear weapons program, particularly the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Putin may also have a negotiating trump card in mind to encourage an already shaky US administration to put pressure on Kyiv and force it into a ceasefire. Whatever the diplomatic double game, the West should now be helping Ukraine prepare in case their current offensive fails, allowing Putin to launch his Kaiserschlacht, the Telegraph concludes.

If this 1918 apocalyptic scenario becomes a reality, it will require a massive effort from the West, as well as from Ukraine – greater than has already been made. It will be very expensive for everyone, with potential consequences too terrifying to contemplate, the paper writes.