Ex-CIA analyst: Everything resembles breakout of World War I, waiting for a trigger

Ex-CIA analyst: Everything resembles breakout of World War I, waiting for a trigger

George Beebe, current Vice President of the Washington Center for National Interest, believes that it is becoming increasingly difficult to prevent potential conflicts, so it is necessary for the two countries to establish channels of communication.

Although the report of the Special Prosecutor Robert Müller on "Russian case" had eliminated doubts about "Donald Trump's conspiracy with Moscow," Beebe says in the US, people still believe that Russia is trying to "undermine American democracy" and generally harm America in every way, Sputnik reports. There is a consensus in Washington that Russia seeks to fundamentally undermine democratic government in the United States, but that conclusion is not based on any sort of sound analysis.

"That is a very dangerous. Period. The idea that the US has faced a risk that threatens their very existence makes it difficult to manage the crisis. It is becoming increasingly difficult to establish the communication channels needed to manage the crisis and prevent conflict", Beebe warns.

The state of rivalry, he pointed out, does not allow US experts and politicians to advocate measures that would allow them to manage relations and eliminate dangers. "The obvious outcome is that we are not doing what is necessary to prevent that competition from getting out of hand", the expert added.

Resembling the outbreak of the World War I

Beebe, who also served as adviser to US Vice President Richard Cheney for Russia, Eurasia, and intelligence, published a book this month entitled: "The Russia Trap: How our shadow war with Russia could spiral into nuclear catastrophe".

In the book, George Beebe argues that "new game-changing technologies, disappearing rules of the game, and distorted perceptions on both sides are combining to lock Washington and Moscow into an escalatory spiral that they do not recognize. All the pieces are in place for a World War I-type tragedy that could be triggered by a small, unpredictable event". Beebe believes that anticipating this danger is the most important step in preventing it.

In his book, the expert describes, in his view, a similar situation before the First World War. As Beebe writes, the disaster at the time was caused by the mutual underestimation of potential adversaries, incompatible geopolitical ambitions and new technologies that fuel the first coup and create the illusion of superiority over the adversary.

"There are numerous potential triggers around the world today that could trigger a similar crisis. And we do not have the channels of communication, game rules, or restrictive measures necessary to deal with it. It must be acknowledged that this is a dangerous situation. lf we recognize it as such, then I think we could fight it, but it must be acknowledged that the danger exists", Beebe concluded.