"The last straw": Is China disappearing?

"The last straw": Is China disappearing?

After the abrupt lift of the zero-rate Covid regime in China last month, the virus was allowed to spread freely, and the overwhelming majority responded with No, said a Shanghai-based e-commerce executive.

Tales of mothers with children unable to reach doctors in medical facilities overwhelmed by people infected with covid were the last straw.

"I heard that it's really scary to give birth in a public hospital. I really don't want to think about the baby," said the 31-year-old.

China will release official population data soon

Insights into the scars the pandemic has left on China's already bleak demographic outlook could emerge when the country releases official population figures for 2022, scheduled for January 17.

Some demographers expect China's population to experience its first decline since the Great Famine of 1961, a profound change with far-reaching consequences for the global economy and world order. The number of newborns for 2022 should fall to a record low level, below 10 million compared to last year's 10.6 million babies - which is already 11.5 percent less than in 2020.

"China has entered a long and irreversible process"

"With this historical turning point, China has entered a long and irreversible process of population decline, for the first time in Chinese and world history," said Wang Feng, a sociology professor at the University of California.

"In less than 80 years, China's population could decrease by 45 percent. Then it will be a China that the world will not recognize," he said.

China's total population increased by 480,000 to 1.4126 billion in 2021. The United Nations predicted that China's population will begin to decline this year as India takes over the title as the world's most populous country.

UN experts predict that China's population will fall by 109 million by 2050, more than triple the previous forecast for 2019. While nine of the world's 10 most populous countries are experiencing declining birth rates, China's 2022 fertility rate of 1.18 was the lowest below the OECD standard of 2.1 for a stable population.

The country, which imposed a one-child policy from 1980 to 2015, officially acknowledged it was on the brink of demographic decline last year when the National Health Commission said the population could begin to decline before 2025. In October, President Xi Jinping said the government would introduce further policies to increase the country's birth rate.