Putin's political death or... Everything went down the drain? Erdogan supports Crimea

Putin's political death or... Everything went down the drain? Erdogan supports Crimea

Although in March it voted for the United Nations General Assembly resolution demanding an end to Russian aggression, Turkey did not join the Western sanctions.

At the same time, however, it blocked the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles for the passage of Russian and other military ships into the Black Sea.

Turkish president clearly called the Russian invasion unacceptable, but refused to turn his back on Moscow.

At least until Tuesday, when he certainly shocked his Russian colleague Vladimir Putin by declaring that Crimea belongs to Ukraine, that its annexation is "illegitimate and illegal" and that "the return of Crimea to Ukraine, of which it is an inseparable part, is an essential need from the point of view of international law." Erdogan said this in a video message released at the second summit of the Crimean Platform, an initiative by which Ukraine has been trying to mobilize international support since last year to return Crimea.

Erdogan also reiterated his demand for the release of Crimean Tatar leader Nariman Dzhelyal and at least 45 other Crimean Tatars detained by Russia in 2021.

As far as Russia is concerned, of course, Crimea has been an inseparable part of it since it annexed it in 2014, following the military occupation it carried out to overthrow the pro-Russian president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych. After that, in the conditions of such a military occupation, it held a disputed referendum, according to the official results of which the majority of the population of this Ukrainian peninsula (with a majority Russian population) declared in favor of secession from Ukraine and annexation to Russia.

A large part of the international community, including the EU, the US and the majority in the United Nations General Assembly, rejected the referendum and the annexation itself as contrary to international law. In other words, the position of the vast majority of the international community is that Crimea is still Ukrainian. The only countries that have recognized Russia's illegal annexation are Afghanistan, Cuba, Kyrgyzstan, Nicaragua, North Korea, Sudan, Syria and Zimbabwe.

Turkish president only confirmed his country's already established position, but his statement comes at a rather inconvenient time for Russia, as Ukrainians launch devastating attacks on Russian military targets across Crimea, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claims the war will end in Crimea, just as it broke out on Crimea eight years ago.

Putin, Ukraine and Erdogan: "There is no chance"

Military analyst Barić claims that Erdogan will not openly take sides.

"Erdogan sees in this a fantastic opportunity to pay for Turkey's status in this war," said Baric, who is nevertheless skeptical about Erdogan's ambition to mediate in the peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow. "Peace negotiations stopped at the end of March and there won't be any until something significant is done on the military front in Ukraine, and for that we will have to wait for the spring and summer of next year, because we have a blockade on the battlefield," predicts Barić.

Regarding the possibility that Erdogan and other mediators through diplomatic channels persuade Putin to return Ukrainian territory (including Crimea), Baric is also very clear: "There is no way that Putin will agree to such a thing, because it would be his political death. A strong leader must not show such weakness."