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14.01.2026.

11:11

"Vladimir Vladimirovič, if Trump topples Iran…"

After the escalation of the conflict in Iran, where it has been confirmed that over 2,500 people have been killed during the protests, it is increasingly likely that U.S. president will attack Iran, but analysts believe that this would bring numerous problems.

Izvor: Index.hr

"Vladimir Vladimirovič, if Trump topples Iran…"
EPA/SERGEY BOBYLEV/SPUTNIK/KREMLIN POOL MANDATORY CREDIT

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Washington has long considered Iran a key destabilizing factor in the Middle East, and a potential attack would represent the most dangerous escalation in relations between the two countries in recent years, writes Index.

Croatian foreign policy analyst Božo Kovačević told Index that an attack is possible, recalling that the U.S. bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities six months ago.

"An attack is possible and seems very likely. Previous Israeli and American bombings were aimed at weakening the Iranian regime, and it is now evident that circumstances within Iran have developed that could lead to the collapse of that regime," he said.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that he believes the Iranian regime, which is facing problems, is in its “final days and weeks.”

Foreign policy analyst Denis Avdagić agrees, noting that Iranian influence has been declining for some time.

He reminds that there have been protests before over socio-economic disparities, but now there is a combination of multiple factors.

"This is not good for the regime. But the fall of the regime can only happen under the conditions in which it came to power, which is when the repressive apparatus turns its back on the rulers. We do not see that yet. U.S. intervention? If we are talking about boots on their ground, Iran would be like Iraq 5.0. I don’t believe anyone would dare to do that. Although the world shows that much of what was once impossible has become possible," Avdagić said.

According to him, few people notice that Trump said he did not allow a strike on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the previous attack, and whether he would be willing to do so now is difficult to interpret.

Is Trump considering proposals for negotiations?

As a White House official told Axios, Trump is open to the possibility of U.S. strikes on Iran as punishment for what he sees as the killing of protesters, but he has not yet made a final decision and is simultaneously considering Iranian proposals for negotiations.

If he were to order strikes, according to sources, they would likely be targeted at parts of the regime connected to internal security, which is considered responsible for the repression.

The U.S. Ambassador to Israel, Mike Herzog, told Sky News that the U.S. currently has no plans to launch a military strike on Iran, although such a decision could change.

What if a strike happens?


"If the U.S. decides it needs to act to protect personnel or property, or to safeguard energy flows, there is a range of tools, from cyberattacks and sabotage to drone and missile strikes from air and sea," said Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, to CNBC.

The U.S. could also target nuclear or military infrastructure or government facilities to reduce the regime’s capabilities and “deter it from disruptive actions,” Gertken added.

Analyst Božo Kovačević notes that most of Trump’s supporters would welcome an attack on Iran.

"If the regime is overthrown, it is obvious that a government favorable to the U.S. would be installed, one that would also be friendly toward Israel. It is also anticipated that there could be a possible return of the Pahlavi dynasty, although that is not certain," Kovačević explained.

Strikes against the Houthis, Hezbollah, and even Russia


On the question of what geopolitical consequences a U.S. strike on Iran would have, Kovačević said:

"For Trump, this would be a definitive confirmation of American power and a fulfillment of the expectations of a large part of his voter base. I certainly think it would be important that there is no occupation of Iran, because that is difficult to achieve and would be hard to sustain. Trump’s success would also remove a threat to Israel," he said.

"The Houthis and Hezbollah are Iranian actors, and without Iran’s lasting support, they cannot survive. This would also be another failure for Russia, which is Iran’s ally. Russia has also been an ally of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and a protector of Maduro in Venezuela. This would confirm the unconvincing guarantees Russia can provide to its vassals," Kovačević added.

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