14.01.2026.
11:11
"Vladimir Vladimirovič, if Trump topples Iran…"
After the escalation of the conflict in Iran, where it has been confirmed that over 2,500 people have been killed during the protests, it is increasingly likely that U.S. president will attack Iran, but analysts believe that this would bring numerous problems.
Washington has long considered Iran a key destabilizing factor in the Middle East, and a potential attack would represent the most dangerous escalation in relations between the two countries in recent years, writes Index.
Croatian foreign policy analyst Božo Kovačević told Index that an attack is possible, recalling that the U.S. bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities six months ago.
"An attack is possible and seems very likely. Previous Israeli and American bombings were aimed at weakening the Iranian regime, and it is now evident that circumstances within Iran have developed that could lead to the collapse of that regime," he said.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that he believes the Iranian regime, which is facing problems, is in its “final days and weeks.”
Foreign policy analyst Denis Avdagić agrees, noting that Iranian influence has been declining for some time.
He reminds that there have been protests before over socio-economic disparities, but now there is a combination of multiple factors.
"This is not good for the regime. But the fall of the regime can only happen under the conditions in which it came to power, which is when the repressive apparatus turns its back on the rulers. We do not see that yet. U.S. intervention? If we are talking about boots on their ground, Iran would be like Iraq 5.0. I don’t believe anyone would dare to do that. Although the world shows that much of what was once impossible has become possible," Avdagić said.
According to him, few people notice that Trump said he did not allow a strike on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the previous attack, and whether he would be willing to do so now is difficult to interpret.
Is Trump considering proposals for negotiations?
As a White House official told Axios, Trump is open to the possibility of U.S. strikes on Iran as punishment for what he sees as the killing of protesters, but he has not yet made a final decision and is simultaneously considering Iranian proposals for negotiations.
If he were to order strikes, according to sources, they would likely be targeted at parts of the regime connected to internal security, which is considered responsible for the repression.
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