Putin's message to Trump: There is no peace!

According to these sources, Putin is unimpressed by US President Donald Trump's threats of new sanctions and believes that both the Russian military and economy are strong enough to withstand additional pressure from the West.

Putin believes that no one seriously wanted to negotiate with him

"Putin believes that no one, not even the Americans, has seriously engaged on Russia's specific terms for peace, so he will continue until he gets what he wants," said one source who asked not to be named.

Trump yesterday expressed frustration with Putin's refusal to accept a ceasefire and announced new arms deliveries to Ukraine, including Patriot systems, and additional sanctions if a peace deal is not reached within 50 days.

Kremlin: No basis for peace, only vague contacts

Although Trump and Putin have spoken on the phone several times, and US envoy Steve Witkoff has traveled to Moscow on several occasions for meetings with Putin, the Russian president, according to sources, believes that there has been no serious attempt to define the basis for peace.

"It is important for Putin to maintain relations with Trump and he had good talks with Witkoff, but Russia's interests are above all," one of the sources added.

Putin's demands: Withdrawal from NATO, Ukraine must remain neutral

According to sources close to the Kremlin, Putin is seeking a legally binding guarantee that NATO will not expand eastward, neutral status for Ukraine and limitations on its armed forces, as well as protection of the Russian-speaking region. He is also seeking recognition of Russia's territorial gains.

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Putin is reportedly ready to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine that would include major powers, but it is unclear what that would look like in practice. President Volodymyr Zelensky's office did not respond to a Reuters query.

Putin is not afraid of tariffs, Russia surpasses NATO in ammunition

Another source said Putin believes Moscow's goals are more important than any economic consequences and is not concerned about US threats of tariffs against China and India for buying Russian oil.

Two sources claim that Russia has a battlefield advantage and that its military industry surpasses NATO's production of key munitions, such as artillery shells.

Russia is advancing, its appetite for territory is growing 

According to DeepStateMap, an interactive online map that tracks open-source information, Russian forces have seized an additional 1,415 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in the past three months. “The appetite is growing as time goes on,” one source said, suggesting that Putin could expand his demands if the war does not end.

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Russia already controls nearly a fifth of Ukraine: all of Crimea, all of Luhansk Oblast, more than 70 percent of Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson Oblasts, and parts of Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Putin publicly claims that five key regions—including Crimea—are now part of Russia and that Kyiv must withdraw if it wants peace.

If Ukraine weakens, Putin will go for more territory

Sources say Moscow could temporarily halt the offensive if it encounters serious resistance. “But if Ukraine weakens, there will be even greater conquests – Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy and Kharkiv regions,” said a third source.

Zelensky claims that Russia’s summer offensive is not going according to plan, and his commanders acknowledge the numerical superiority of Russian forces, but say Ukrainian forces are holding the line and inflicting heavy losses on Russia.

Trump and Putin: Friendly tone, but no deal

The United States says about 1.2 million people have been killed or wounded in the war, making it the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv release full figures for their own casualties, and Russia calls Western estimates propaganda.

Trump has sought to mend ties with Moscow since returning to the White House in January. He has spoken to Putin at least six times and described him as "a tough guy, but not a killer." The Trump administration sees the conflict as a proxy war between the United States and Russia, has withdrawn support for Ukraine's membership in NATO and raised the possibility of recognizing Russia's annexation of Crimea.

Putin believes he has survived the worst

Putin presents the war as a turning point in relations with the collective West, which he says humiliated Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 by expanding NATO into areas Moscow considers its sphere of influence, including Ukraine and Georgia.

While Zelensky has supported Trump’s idea of an unconditional ceasefire, Putin has yet to accept it. Meanwhile, Russia has continued its drone attacks on Ukrainian cities.

Trump: I'm not done with Putin

Trump told the BBC he was "not done with Putin" and that a deal on Ukraine was still possible. However, a senior Kremlin source dismissed Trump's comments last week in which he accused Putin of "selling smokescreens", saying that positive talks with Witkoff never developed into real negotiations.

ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP / Profimedia

A White House official said yesterday that Trump is considering imposing 100 percent tariffs on Russian goods and secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian energy as a way to force Moscow to the negotiating table. The largest buyers of Russian oil are currently China and India.

The war will continue, tensions are rising

Despite sanctions and the cost of Europe’s worst war in 80 years, Russia’s $2 trillion economy has proven more resilient than expected. The Russian economy ministry forecasts growth to slow to 2.5 percent in 2025, down from 4.3 percent last year.

Another source close to the Kremlin believes Trump has limited influence over Putin and that Russia will find a way to bypass the tariffs and continue exporting. “Putin knows that Trump is unpredictable and capable of unpleasant moves, but for now he is careful not to irritate him too much,” the source said.

One of the sources concluded that an escalation could occur in the coming months, warning of the risk of conflict between the two largest nuclear powers. “The war will continue,” he added.