Russians' new powerful weapon decided the battle for Avdiivka: It leaves wasteland

Russians' new powerful weapon decided the battle for Avdiivka: It leaves wasteland

In recent weeks, however, everything has changed in the sky above Avdiivka – a former Ukrainian stronghold northwest of occupied Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, Forbes writes.

The Russians dropped precision satellite bombs from 40 kilometers away on Avdiivka, weeks before a dozen Russian brigades and regiments finally forced Ukraine's 110th Mechanized Brigade to withdraw from the devastated city to the west after four months of fierce attacks.

Now that the Russians have finally figured out how to most effectively support ground troops from the air, we can expect the same tactics in other sectors of the 965 kilometer front line.

The strategic aerial bombardment of Avdiivka could "harness a shift in Russian operations elsewhere along the front line," the Institute for War Study said. The Russian Air Force has a thousand fighter-bombers for the first line of defense, about 10 times more fighter jets than the Ukrainian Air Force.

The impressive superiority did not translate into full control of the air over Ukraine when Russian ground forces went on the offensive in February 2022.

"Since the beginning of March 2022, the Russian Air Force has lost the ability to operate in Ukrainian-controlled airspace, except at very low altitudes, due to the inability to reliably suppress or destroy increasingly effective, well-dispersed and mobile Ukrainian surface-to-air missile systems," explained Justin Bronk, Nick Reynolds and Jack Watling in a November 2022 report for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London.

In the first year of the war, Russian pilots could not risk flights close to the front line. Also, they lacked long-range precision munitions that would have allowed them to support ground forces from a safe distance. Ukrainian air defenses effectively neutralized Russian air superiority. However, it did not last. They attached wings and satellite guidance kits to KAB and FAB bombs and very quickly developed primitive glide bombing capabilities.

The Sukhoi fighter jet can drop two or more bombs on targets 40 kilometers away if it flies high and fast. This is enough to reduce, but not eliminate, the risk to Ukraine's surface-to-air system. These bombs quickly became one of Russia's deadliest weapons. Ukrainian troops described the fear of huge, silent bombs that would explode without warning - with enough firepower to bring down buildings and bunkers.

As the Russian army concentrated much of its combat power for the attack on Avdiivka, KAB bombs gained in importance. The Ukrainian 110th Brigade in Avdiyivka counted on hundreds of residential high-rise buildings that will serve as observation posts and firing positions. The Russians, however, demolished many buildings with the help of KAB bombs.

"These bombs destroy every position," Yegor Shugar, a soldier with Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade, which covered the 110th Brigade's withdrawal from Avdiyivka, wrote on Friday. "All buildings and facilities simply turn into a pit after just one KAB bomb."

At the height of the air campaign over the weekend, the Sukhoi dropped an incredible 250 KAB bombs in 48 hours. Soon the members of the 110th Brigade realized that they had nowhere to hide in the ruins of Avdijevka. The exhausted brigade fled to the west and surrendered the city to more numerous Russian regiments and brigades. According to ISW, for possibly the first time in two years, the Russian Air Force played a decisive role in Russian ground operations.

This did not happen without great expense. On Saturday, a Ukrainian missile battery, possibly one of their three units armed with American Patriot missiles, shot down three Russian Sukhoi 96 kilometers east of Avdiivka. The Ukrainian military claims to have shot down a fourth Sukhoi on Sunday. The Ukrainians clearly have the means to shoot down the fighter jets and prevent the devastating cruise.

However, they lack capacity. The United States was the largest supplier of Patriot missiles, but since October, Republicans in Congress have begun to block the delivery of military aid to Ukraine.

Ukraine's stock of Patriots with a range of 144 kilometers is falling to a critical level, claims Anton Gerashchenko, a former adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs. It is possible that in the coming weeks or months, the arrival of the first ex-European F-16 fighters will help Ukraine compensate for the dwindling number of Patriots.

"The key tasks of the F-16 are likely to be the continued suppression of Russian bombers launching missiles at Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, as well as the interception of Russian tactical aviation," explained Mick Ryan, a retired general of the Australian Army. "That includes destroying or degrading the effectiveness of Russian aircraft that fire glide bombs."

Before that, Ukraine's new F-16s will have to sneak past Russian fighters and through Russian air defenses to hit the bombers. It will be risky, but the Patriots are Ukraine's best defense against Russian KAB bombs. While the Patriots are gone, the Russians will no doubt try to repeat the successful bombing of Avdiivka.