Total war, will it be worse than in 1939?

Total war, will it be worse than in 1939?

"Clearly, the possibility of nuclear war and the expansion of Putin's forces westward demand our utmost attention. Yes, we are also threatened by attacks from Middle Eastern terrorist groups, but they are limited and do not have the ability to engage in the kind of tyrannical subjugation that Putin would dearly like to attempt in Ukraine. Moreover, they don't have the ability to send lethal strategic nuclear warheads," Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a chemical weapons expert, writes for the British Telegraph.

However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is increasingly angry as the West is currently distracted by conflicts on other fronts. After 20 months of continuous warfare, recent changes in generals and security officials show a deep frustration with the state of war in Ukraine.

Stockpiles of Western weapons and ammunition are dwindling and it is apparent that they are now being diverted to the Eastern Mediterranean. And the elections in the United States of America and the United Kingdom, which are to be held in 2024, could be fatal for the continuation of arming Ukraine.

"Meanwhile, it is clear that Russia is turning to total war. Their military spending could easily exceed 10 percent of GDP this year. The Kremlin is ready to sacrifice its young men and throw them into a meat grinder in the Donbass, while Ukrainian soldiers on the front has an average age of more than 40 years. Besides, Putin does not have to fear losing the election, there is absolutely no risk for him. This total commitment could tip the balance - and Zelensky knows it very well," says Hamish de Bretton-Gordon.

The essay "Modern positional warfare and how to win in it" by General Valery Zaluzhny, the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, very honestly and realistically assesses the current state of war, but also warns the West about the fact that Russia is still far from defeat. Russia has allegedly lost more than 300,000 soldiers in 20 months of this war, but Putin, writes Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, is "insulated from the political consequences of this general destruction of Russia's future" in the Kremlin.

Positional warfare allows the Russians to send barely trained soldiers into the trenches who just need to hold a rifle and shoot. Ukraine, on the other hand, has no safe areas to train its recruits.

"Zelensky is constantly looking for new weapons and repeats the appeal for them. In 1917, in the trenches of the First World War, the tank was the decisive factor. As a former tank commander, I estimate that the tank action at Cambrai on November 20, 1917, is no different from the tank actions in Donbass in 2023. This will break the impasse if we meet the commitments Zelensky is asking for, especially if we provide the Ukrainians with the missing part of modern fighter jets. But above all, we in the West must understand that events in Europe will shape our destiny much more than those in the eastern Mediterranean. We must provide Ukraine with everything it needs to win. Otherwise, there is a real possibility that they will lose the war and a dark cloud will descend on Europe, the likes of which we have not seen since 1939," concludes Hamish de Bretton-Gordon for British Telegraph.