How does the West deliver weapons to Ukraine? They have two routes

How does the West deliver weapons to Ukraine? They have two routes

The main route for transporting weapons is through Poland, but the question is how much longer it will be open.

The European Union has set aside 450 million euros for lethal weapons, which include air defense systems, anti-tank weapons, ammunition and other military equipment for Ukrainian forces. Another 50 million euros will be spent on supplies such as fuel, protective equipment, helmets and first aid kits.

As the EU agreements do not allow it to use the usual budget for military purposes, the European Peace Facility project has been activated, which enables Brussels to provide military assistance up to the ceiling of five billion euros.

This happened immediately after the paradigm shift in German defense policy, which lifted the ban on the delivery of deadly weapons to war zones.

The United States is also stepping up supplies and providing an additional $ 350 million in military aid. Thus, the total American military aid to Ukraine reached one billion dollars last year and more than 2.5 billion dollars since 2014.

Logistical challenges

While this shows a huge incentive for Ukraine in its efforts to repel Russian forces, there are concerns about logistics and potential obstacles. Questions related to timing and delivery routes.

Until now, military aid from the West has been delivered by land or air, depending on the type of weapon. But the airspace over Ukraine is now controlled by Russian fighter jets, which could intercept shipments with "mostly air and missile strikes."

"If they know the routes, they can monitor them and see what is being transported," Gustav Gressel, an expert on Eastern Europe and defense policy at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW. That is why the focus is on Poland, which shares a 535-kilometer border with Ukraine. The US military has a long history of directing forces and equipment through Poland.

And Poland will be even more in focus for transport - after Hungary and Romania refused to allow the transit of weapons through their countries.

The role of Poland

"All this equipment is currently on the Polish border en masse. Even if Slovakia wanted to, it is not an easy road because of the mountain ranges that go from Slovakia down through Romania. So there are two routes.

One is close to the Belarusian border, and there is one a little further south," Ed Arnold, a European security researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, told DW.

Marc Fino, from the Geneva Center for Security Policy, notes that the dynamics on the ground could change very quickly.

If these convoys or transport were stopped - if Western countries were attacked, whether within NATO's borders or already across the border with Ukraine - it could increase tensions." Arnold says that the danger of such an escalation is currently holding back the Russians because they would "target the supply of the West."

However, he says that he is surprised that they did not interrupt those routes, "because that would actually be useful for their strategy if they could go in those two directions. The Russians have the option to start from the southwest of Belarus and stop all the equipment that is coming. "

Time is of the essence

Another key factor is the fast-paced time for reinforcements in Kyiv and Kharkiv.

This, says Arnold, is especially problematic for "Ukrainian forces on the eastern front line, which will potentially be cut off if they do not move west of the Dnieper River soon." They will need supplies because they are fighting the hardest. These are the best Ukrainian soldiers from the 95th Air Assault Brigade.

Is there any other way to bring Western weapons systems to the front lines in Ukraine? "Another possibility is for Ukrainian or foreign fighters to pick up things in Poland and then cross the border, but that is not possible in large numbers," Arnold said.

At this stage, the danger of running out of ammunition is critical, says Arnold. "There may be five days of ammunition left for the heavier systems that Ukrainians have. Another option they have is to confiscate Russian abandoned weapons, which will provide them with some time, but not too much".