Bank forecasts rising unemployment

Unicredit banking group has estimated that Serbia's unemployment rate will go from 18 pct in 2008, to 21 pct at the end of this year.

Izvor: Beta

Monday, 04.05.2009.

13:11

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Unicredit banking group has estimated that Serbia's unemployment rate will go from 18 pct in 2008, to 21 pct at the end of this year. According to this quarterly forecast, the GDP will drop by 2.5 percent to EUR 29.5bn, while this decline will slow down in 2010 and amount to 0.7 percent. Bank forecasts rising unemployment In the same year, unemployment figures will reach 21.5 percent, said the bank. Last year's inflation of 11.7 percent will this year drop to 7.8 percent, while in 2010 it will be 6.5 percent, Unicredit further predicts, and says the exchange rate of the Serbian dinar (RSD), measured against the euro (EUR), will reach RSD 97.58 this year, and RSD 103.5 the next. In 2008, the average exchange rate was RSD 81.49 for one euro. The bank also sees a decline of FDI to EUR 1.1bn this year from EUR 1.9bn in 2008, while the trend will reverse in 2010, when the figure is projected to be RSD 1.3bn. The current payment deficit, last year at 17.8 percent of the GDP, will drop to 10.8 percent this year, and continue to decline the year after. The bank's analysis also points out that the economic activity slowdown which started in October 2008 continued this year as well.

Bank forecasts rising unemployment

In the same year, unemployment figures will reach 21.5 percent, said the bank.

Last year's inflation of 11.7 percent will this year drop to 7.8 percent, while in 2010 it will be 6.5 percent, Unicredit further predicts, and says the exchange rate of the Serbian dinar (RSD), measured against the euro (EUR), will reach RSD 97.58 this year, and RSD 103.5 the next.

In 2008, the average exchange rate was RSD 81.49 for one euro.

The bank also sees a decline of FDI to EUR 1.1bn this year from EUR 1.9bn in 2008, while the trend will reverse in 2010, when the figure is projected to be RSD 1.3bn.

The current payment deficit, last year at 17.8 percent of the GDP, will drop to 10.8 percent this year, and continue to decline the year after.

The bank's analysis also points out that the economic activity slowdown which started in October 2008 continued this year as well.

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