A perfect storm

A perfect storm Many of the people caught up in it initially underestimated its power because their experience was based on earlier storms, which lacked all the critical ingredients contained in this one. I think a lot about that "perfect storm" these days and wonder whether we are not witnessing its geo-political equivalent. The world, as we know it, is changing rapidly. For those of us caught up in it, like the humans in the midst of the storm, we tend to respond based on our own experiences and underestimate the finality and significance of the changes, which are now underway. After all, some summers are hotter than others, the price of gasoline fluctuates, and life goes on with small adjustments. The danger, however, is that in underestimating the consequences; our willingness to take the drastic measures to preserve our way of life is severely diminished. The factors, which make up this geo-political storm, include the impact of global warming; the increased demand for fossil-fuel products and their inevitable decline in availability; globalization; demographic change; and severely flawed leadership in both the United States and the European Union. Global Warming is increasing the severity of weather "events" such as hurricanes, tornados, droughts and hot spells. It is shifting the air and sea currents, which have traditionally brought rain, sun, and warmer or colder air to some areas and moved it to others. It is creating drought in some already-poor parts of the world while giving new opportunities in traditionally colder regions. The shortfall of oil and gas has dramatically changed the power relationships among countries. For poorer countries, the rising energy costs are becoming an impossible burden. All economies have to deal with raised costs of energy, both direct and indirect. On the other end of the scale, a large percentage of oil and gas is located in states, which are authoritarian in nature (Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia to name a few). As the price for oil and gas has skyrocketed, it has poured unprecedented wealth into these countries. This in turn has enabled them to resist the soft pressure from the West (either through financial institutions such as the IMF and World Bank or from individual countries) to carry out democratic, market-oriented reforms. Moreover, as the shortfall grows, two things are certain: prices will increase far more (to the detriment of world economic growth) and competition for those resources (including the use of violence at times) will also increase. Globalization is slowly but surely making us into a true global village. The rapidity of technology transfer, communications, and shipment of goods has dramatic implications for our way of life. Relatively minor events anywhere in the world are now almost instantaneously transmitted everywhere. "Outsourcing" of labor is now standard practice. For decades now, the West has preserved and strongly supported a doctrine of free trade with the belief that it is beneficial for all. (Critics will claim it was exclusively designed for the benefit of Western developed countries to the detriment of the underdeveloped world). More and more, however, the rising economies of Asia are using the free trade system against us, based on labor costs so far below our own as to be in a separate category altogether. In short, in a growing number of categories, we simply cannot compete fairly with them. Demographic change means that without doubt, the economic center of the world is shifting to Asia. Within a few years, more than half the world's population will be Asian. Its combination of population size, organized and intelligent workforce, and work ethic means that its share of the world economy will continue to grow. None of the above factors could have been prevented. But with better leadership from the United States and the European Union, they could have been better managed and their consequences alleviated. At this critical time, however, the United States was cursed with probably the worst President in its entire history. At least the one who has done the most damage to the image, reputation, strength, and role of the United States in the world. The decision to invade Iraq has poured gallons of gasoline on the fires of Islamic fundamentalism; weakened our army; and strengthened autocratic regional powers such as Iran. Far worse, practices such as defense of the use of torture, treatment of prisoners in Iraq and Guantanamo Bay, and illegal eavesdropping on the communications of U.S. citizens have taken away any possible claim to superiority in the field of human rights. I would argue that this was the biggest loss of all. The European Union, because of its weak central structure, has not been able to be nearly as effective internationally as its economic status would suggest it should have. So now we have the ingredients of the "perfect storm." What are the potential consequences? I would list the following, which is far from complete: a) The seemingly irresistible transition to democratic rule has stalled and in many cases, is being reversed. China, Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, to name just a prominent few, are demonstrating that authoritarianism is a viable alternative to democracy. Moreover, the flaws of the democratic system suddenly seem much greater than ever before and the merits less. b) Economic power is shifting clearly to Asia and over time, so will political and military power. c) The International Organizations which the West set up in the aftermath of World War II (The World Bank, the International Financial Corporation, the UN) are becoming less relevant and the new economic powers less willing to follow their dictates. The UN Security Council, for example, has a membership structure, which does not reflect the current situation and has a veto system, which makes it incapable of action in almost any significant case. In other words, it does not work. d) The traditional US/European support for free trade may be coming to an end as we go from being its principal beneficiaries to one of its victims. French President Sarkozy signaled this change with his insistence on de-emphasizing the role of competition within the EU at the last EU Summit. e) With the US having lost the right to vigorously support human rights initiatives around the world, the strong moral force behind this movement is losing steam and initiative. f) The "clash of civilizations" between the Western world and the Islamic world is becoming more and more a reality. Terror will not only be with us for the foreseeable future, but the size of terrorist events will increase. g) The world will become more chaotic with regional powers striving for more authority and other countries acquiring nuclear weapons both as a deterrent to attack and also for aggressive policies. The classic example in this regard is Russia, which is taking more and more measures symptomatic of the Cold War. Their decisions to plant the Russian flag on the North Pole and thus claim it for Russia; to resume flying nuclear-armed airplane patrols; and to once again establish a naval presence in the Mediterranean are all examples of this newfound assertiveness. h) The real losers in the global warming equation, principally in Africa, will suffer even more frequent droughts, periods of starvation, and misery. This inevitably will lead to increased emigration and pressure on the developed countries to admit more refugees. This in turn will cause even stronger nationalistic pressures in these host countries. What makes these challenges so great is that in almost every case, they fall outside the normal range of government responses and ministries. They are multinational challenges, which require united, multinational responses. Thus far, it is difficult to see where the leadership for these responses will come from. One thing is certain. The world 20 years from now will be a far, far different place than the one we inhabit today. Russian flag on the North Pole: back to Cold War? A popular book and subsequent movie described how a unique combination of weather factors combined at a particular place and time to create what came to be called "The Perfect Storm." The shortfall of oil and gas has dramatically changed the power relationships among countries. For poorer countries, the rising energy costs are becoming an impossible burden. A large percentage of oil and gas is located in states, which are authoritarian in nature (Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia to name a few).

A perfect storm

Many of the people caught up in it initially underestimated its power because their experience was based on earlier storms, which lacked all the critical ingredients contained in this one.

I think a lot about that "perfect storm" these days and wonder whether we are not witnessing its geo-political equivalent. The world, as we know it, is changing rapidly. For those of us caught up in it, like the humans in the midst of the storm, we tend to respond based on our own experiences and underestimate the finality and significance of the changes, which are now underway.

After all, some summers are hotter than others, the price of gasoline fluctuates, and life goes on with small adjustments. The danger, however, is that in underestimating the consequences; our willingness to take the drastic measures to preserve our way of life is severely diminished.

The factors, which make up this geo-political storm, include the impact of global warming; the increased demand for fossil-fuel products and their inevitable decline in availability; globalization; demographic change; and severely flawed leadership in both the United States and the European Union.

Global Warming is increasing the severity of weather "events" such as hurricanes, tornados, droughts and hot spells. It is shifting the air and sea currents, which have traditionally brought rain, sun, and warmer or colder air to some areas and moved it to others. It is creating drought in some already-poor parts of the world while giving new opportunities in traditionally colder regions.

The shortfall of oil and gas has dramatically changed the power relationships among countries. For poorer countries, the rising energy costs are becoming an impossible burden. All economies have to deal with raised costs of energy, both direct and indirect. On the other end of the scale, a large percentage of oil and gas is located in states, which are authoritarian in nature (Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia to name a few).

As the price for oil and gas has skyrocketed, it has poured unprecedented wealth into these countries. This in turn has enabled them to resist the soft pressure from the West (either through financial institutions such as the IMF and World Bank or from individual countries) to carry out democratic, market-oriented reforms.

Moreover, as the shortfall grows, two things are certain: prices will increase far more (to the detriment of world economic growth) and competition for those resources (including the use of violence at times) will also increase.

Globalization is slowly but surely making us into a true global village. The rapidity of technology transfer, communications, and shipment of goods has dramatic implications for our way of life. Relatively minor events anywhere in the world are now almost instantaneously transmitted everywhere. "Outsourcing" of labor is now standard practice.

For decades now, the West has preserved and strongly supported a doctrine of free trade with the belief that it is beneficial for all. (Critics will claim it was exclusively designed for the benefit of Western developed countries to the detriment of the underdeveloped world).

More and more, however, the rising economies of Asia are using the free trade system against us, based on labor costs so far below our own as to be in a separate category altogether.

In short, in a growing number of categories, we simply cannot compete fairly with them.

Demographic change means that without doubt, the economic center of the world is shifting to Asia. Within a few years, more than half the world's population will be Asian. Its combination of population size, organized and intelligent workforce, and work ethic means that its share of the world economy will continue to grow.

None of the above factors could have been prevented. But with better leadership from the United States and the European Union, they could have been better managed and their consequences alleviated. At this critical time, however, the United States was cursed with probably the worst President in its entire history.

At least the one who has done the most damage to the image, reputation, strength, and role of the United States in the world. The decision to invade Iraq has poured gallons of gasoline on the fires of Islamic fundamentalism; weakened our army; and strengthened autocratic regional powers such as Iran.

Far worse, practices such as defense of the use of torture, treatment of prisoners in Iraq and Guantanamo Bay, and illegal eavesdropping on the communications of U.S. citizens have taken away any possible claim to superiority in the field of human rights.

I would argue that this was the biggest loss of all. The European Union, because of its weak central structure, has not been able to be nearly as effective internationally as its economic status would suggest it should have.

So now we have the ingredients of the "perfect storm." What are the potential consequences? I would list the following, which is far from complete:

a) The seemingly irresistible transition to democratic rule has stalled and in many cases, is being reversed. China, Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, to name just a prominent few, are demonstrating that authoritarianism is a viable alternative to democracy. Moreover, the flaws of the democratic system suddenly seem much greater than ever before and the merits less.

b) Economic power is shifting clearly to Asia and over time, so will political and military power.

c) The International Organizations which the West set up in the aftermath of World War II (The World Bank, the International Financial Corporation, the UN) are becoming less relevant and the new economic powers less willing to follow their dictates.

The UN Security Council, for example, has a membership structure, which does not reflect the current situation and has a veto system, which makes it incapable of action in almost any significant case. In other words, it does not work.

d) The traditional US/European support for free trade may be coming to an end as we go from being its principal beneficiaries to one of its victims. French President Sarkozy signaled this change with his insistence on de-emphasizing the role of competition within the EU at the last EU Summit.

e) With the US having lost the right to vigorously support human rights initiatives around the world, the strong moral force behind this movement is losing steam and initiative.

f) The "clash of civilizations" between the Western world and the Islamic world is becoming more and more a reality. Terror will not only be with us for the foreseeable future, but the size of terrorist events will increase.

g) The world will become more chaotic with regional powers striving for more authority and other countries acquiring nuclear weapons both as a deterrent to attack and also for aggressive policies. The classic example in this regard is Russia, which is taking more and more measures symptomatic of the Cold War.

Their decisions to plant the Russian flag on the North Pole and thus claim it for Russia; to resume flying nuclear-armed airplane patrols; and to once again establish a naval presence in the Mediterranean are all examples of this newfound assertiveness.

h) The real losers in the global warming equation, principally in Africa, will suffer even more frequent droughts, periods of starvation, and misery. This inevitably will lead to increased emigration and pressure on the developed countries to admit more refugees. This in turn will cause even stronger nationalistic pressures in these host countries.

What makes these challenges so great is that in almost every case, they fall outside the normal range of government responses and ministries. They are multinational challenges, which require united, multinational responses.

Thus far, it is difficult to see where the leadership for these responses will come from. One thing is certain. The world 20 years from now will be a far, far different place than the one we inhabit today.