The war is grinding Russia down; Putin has been backed into a corner

Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated that Ukrainian forces killed 35,000 Russian soldiers in December.

He noted that the goal is to increase that number to 50,000 by this summer, roughly doubling the monthly casualty average calculated by NATO for 2025.

The increased lethality is attributed to more effective use of Ukrainian drones, with estimates from several European governments indicating that the recent ratio of killed to wounded has shifted toward fatalities.

According to these estimates, Russian losses are now approaching the Kremlin’s recruitment capacity, leading many experts to predict that replenishing these losses would require a new mobilization campaign.

However, Bloomberg notes that it is unlikely Russian leader Vladimir Putin would resort to such a measure, as mobilization is extremely unpopular in Russia. He avoided repeating the September 2022 mobilization, when 300,000 reservists were called up, leading to mass emigration and a sharp rise in public dissatisfaction with the war.

Meanwhile, a new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) revealed that Russia has suffered extremely high human losses in the war against Ukraine, while achieving minimal territorial gains.