France is heading toward a "major war"; Is Macron mobilizing the nation for a conflict with Russia?

What kinds of sacrifices might France have to make in a potential conflict between the West and Russia?

Those who so far have thought only about possible financial contributions received further clarification last week from the new Chief of the General Staff.

Speaking to hundreds of mayors, General Fabien Mandon said that Russia is preparing for a conflict with the West by 2030.

“If our country falters because it is not ready to lose its children, to suffer economically, or to call things by their real name, then we are in danger,” warned France’s highest-ranking military officer.

Some opposition politicians reacted angrily to the general’s call for sacrifices. However, Mandon merely highlighted an objective that the French government has long been working toward. President Emmanuel Macron has been warning of the greatest threat to France since 1945. Government officials have repeatedly mentioned the risk of a “major, high-intensity war” in Europe during this decade.

The country’s new security strategy, adopted this summer, states that France is entering a “new era.” Experts agree that the French armed forces are currently not adequately prepared for such a scenario. There is a clear shortage of both personnel and equipment. Despite its high public debt, France has decided to significantly strengthen its military.

When Macron took office in 2017, the defense budget was just over €30 billion. It is planned to more than double—to €67 billion—by 2027.

These billions are not being spent solely on new weapons. The professional army, which currently has about 200,000 active personnel, will also grow. The number of reservists has already risen from about 28,000 in 2014 to more than 47,000 in 2025.

By 2035, that number could reach 105,000. This expansion is taking place independently of compulsory military service, whose reinstatement Macron has ruled out for political and organizational reasons. France will retain its professional army, but the president prefers a kind of “middle path.”

Voluntary Military Service

According to media reports, Macron is expected to announce this week the introduction of a new, paid voluntary military service (“service militaire volontaire”). The planned start date is 2026.

Under yet-unconfirmed plans, the first 3,000 young people could enroll for training in barracks in the coming months. Their number is expected to rise to 10,000 by 2030 and then to 50,000 annually.

The new paid service—reportedly between €900 and €1,000 per month—is designed to last 10 months and is intended for young French people around 18 years old.

Joint military training for young people from different social backgrounds aims to strengthen social cohesion and national identity. Officially, the project is justified by the need to reinforce “national cohesion.” In addition to military skills, values such as discipline, teamwork, and patriotism would also be “instilled.”

If the information circulating among MPs is correct, volunteers will be deployed exclusively within the country after training. For example, they could replace professional soldiers who have for years been patrolling city centers, railway stations, and airports as part of “Operation Sentinel.”

After leaving active service, trained volunteers could be available to the armed forces as reservists, improving military readiness and allowing a rapid increase in personnel if needed.

Voluntary mobilization of part of each age group could help meet the need for the “mass” required to maintain capabilities in the event of conflict, said General Pierre Schill, Chief of the General Staff of the French Army, this summer.

Opposition Support

Unlike budget negotiations, where the government and opposition rarely agree, the voluntary military service initiative enjoys wide support.

“If 10 percent of 50,000 volunteers per year stay in the army, the armed forces will have a pool of 5,000 relatively well-prepared people,” conservative politician Cédric Perrin of The Republicans told La Tribune. Perrin chairs the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defense.

Jordan Bardella, leader of the right-wing National Rally (RN), also supports the project, which Macron first outlined this past summer.

However, France’s currently most popular politician believes that the voluntary service is only a first step toward reinstating mandatory conscription, abolished in 1997 under President Jacques Chirac. Reactions from the political left are far more reserved.

Earlier Program: SNU

Establishing a voluntary military service program has been one of Macron’s favored projects even before the war in Ukraine. Two years after his first election victory, in 2019, the government launched the General National Service (SNU — Service National Universel) for minors aged 15 to 17.

With civic education, flag ceremonies, sports, and mandatory uniforms, the program strongly resembles basic military training. However, it is aimed at civilians and is intended to strengthen social cohesion. Those who wish can voluntarily complete a military segment after the basic program.

SNU, which includes a two-week training course to encourage team spirit, has not been particularly successful. The Court of Audit criticized it a year ago, noting that with about 40,000 participants, it covered only a small portion of the target group, far below expectations. As a result, its funding has been consistently reduced.

Recently, Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced that SNU would be discontinued during the next year. Although funding for the new program may also be complex, the voluntary military service is likely to have greater chances of success.