1. Remember that to start EU negotiations Serbia had to recognise Kosovo and join in sanctions against Russia. Serbia has not done any of those things. Paddy Ashdon is gone and so is BiH.
    (SJ, 12 January 2017 13:26)


    SJ,
    Such nonsense, can't you see the EU is stringing Serbia along, the old carrot trick has got Serbia salivating for EU euros, something Russia is in no position to offer. Dodik will be removed from office once Trump takes office, then you can kiss goodbye to everything the Republic of Srbska gained at Dayton. Serbia is playing checkers while everyone else is playing Chess. SJ, you're at least three steps behind even the dullest bulb.
    (US Special Forces, 16 January 2017 05:56)

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  2. Russia does not have the force projection capability to help Serbia very much during renewed unrest in the Former Yugoslavia. Using its assets designated for Syria will weaken Russia's capability to assist Assad. Russia may be of more help if it could secure a naval presence in Montenegro, but this will not happen until an anti NATO government is set up. Perhaps there are possibilities with beefing up Russia's military presence in Cyprus.
    (Brian Ghilliotti, 15 January 2017 11:46)

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  3. This is comical. So Serbia, a nation with a poor economy, a lack of foreign assets is going to expand? The savior of the Serbian people is Russia, a nation with an economy the size of Italy, and an economy entirely dependent on oil and natural gas for its survival. So let me get this this straight, Russia, who's Muslim population is growing at a rate faster than its non-Muslim population, whose Muslim population in the Caucuses is only as loyal as the last pay check, is going to support the unilateral declaration of independence of a Balkan state, against a secular majority Muslim country, after years of complaining about Kosovo? The Putin system which is built around a man, not an institution, is expected to provide for yet another area of shrinking population, and low economic dynamism, all while being crippled by sanctions, and the rise of renewable energy? Brilliant. Tell me your long term goals, because Serbia, shrinking and ageing population, and Russia, shrinking and ageing ethnic Russian population, are suddenly going to expand coverage to 1.3 million people in the RS, all while rebuilding and changing their economy all while trying to compete militarily against China, the US, India, Pakistan, and others. Tell me finally, how will this look to Russia's allies, Iran, and others, all whom have a great relationship with Bosnia, when you take a genocide created state and yank it away from Bosnia? Do you think Russia and Turkeys new alliance will back this? Good luck.
    (Mustafa, 13 January 2017 20:45)

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  4. (ned taylor, 11 January 2017 16:21)

    Milorad Dodik is a master at this game and he has been several steps ahead of the west. He has played you guys off a break, as they say. The referendum of so called 2006 was a rouse and he has done this over and over again to extract money for RS from the EU as every time he has raised independence Brussels throws more money at RS.
    Since you were a policy advisor in Bosnia you would know that Serbs owned the bulk of the land while Bosniaks were in the cities so this commensurate crap is just that.
    What you don’t understand is that the world powers are changing. China is now the No 1 world economy while the US is only No 1 in the number of people that believe in angels, number of incarcerated, defence spending and now debt holders. This is 2017 not the 1990s. why do you think Trump was voted President?????? This guy would not have survived for one day as a candidate in the 1980s. Its called desperation of the people.
    Russia is taking over the EU, like it or not, but that is what is happening and the Serbs will do the same as the west did with Kosovo and declare that RS is a special case. Meanwhile Kosovo will never join the EU unless it is recognised as a province of Serbia. Remember that to start EU negotiations Serbia had to recognise Kosovo and join in sanctions against Russia. Serbia has not done any of those things. Paddy Ashdon is gone and so is BiH.
    (SJ, 12 January 2017 13:26)

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  5. SJ: Yes, I go often to BiH as I have a business there and have created several jobs for the economy to which you refer. The referendum that Dodik promised in 2006 was on full independence so no, he hasn't held it. When I say that holding a referendum would be hazardous, I am not talking a decline back to full war but a constant state of conflict between the various parties in BiH. As you may know, I have often advocated Bosnian Serbs having their own territory comprising an area that is commensurate with their percentage of the population, but this would need to be negotiated not unilateral. Dodik and fellow Serbs were the first to decry unilateral action by Kosovan Albanians, any similar action by MD would legitimise what happened in Kosovo in 2008 and make it impossible to argue against it. I cannot see Serbia allowing itself to be in a position where it has to recognise both Kosovo and an independent RS.
    (ned taylor, 11 January 2017 16:21)

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  6. (ned taylor, 11 January 2017 09:45)
    Well Dodik held that referendum now. I watched these events very carefully and there was plenty of threats from our resident Bosniaks, but the Croats would have joined in if they were not scared of being wiped off the map if the Serbs also turned against them.
    “Even with the clear and strong support of both Serbia and Russia this path would be hazardous in the extreme”
    What is going to happen? A conflict? Are you joking? That’s just Izzy yapping then running off to the US Embassy LOL. There are no arms in Bosnia and the Bosniaks would suffer even worse than the first time if they started anything.
    What Vucic says and what he does are two different things. That’s why the west is ten yards behind. Why has the EU started negotiations with Serbia? Serbia has not recognised Kosovo nor has it agreed to impose sanctions on Russia. Poor dumb Croats tried to “stop” the negotiations and the EU slapped them down so hard their ears are still ringing.
    Have you actually been to Bosnia lately? Have you seen the “miraculous economy” of the Federation? Please go there then post.
    I know its hard but you guys have to get used to understanding that this is not the 1990s and Paddy Ashdon is not in Bosnia to spread his BS. Those days are gone for ever. Even Inchko can’t do a thing – in fact he now looks so stupid with his ridiculous statements about having the power to remove Dodik then adding he will not do it.
    (sj, 11 January 2017 13:25)

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  7. Let's not forget that the referendum that Dodik refers to was promised in the run up to the 2006 elections. Even with the clear and strong support of both Serbia and Russia this path would be hazardous in the extreme. Without it any moves towards full independence by Dodik are doomed to failure. Vucic seems keen to keep the EU sweet and Putin won't want one of the first acts of his new friendship with Trump to be seeming to support a fresh Balkan conflict. There are growing domestic problems for Dodik and a decisive victory for both SNSD and MD himself is far from certain at next year's elections. He knows that his trump card (pardon the pun) is to rattle the drum of independence and draw attention away from failures elsewhere.
    (ned taylor, 11 January 2017 09:45)

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  8. WHAT IS THIS ? -

    The West with the US,
    will not allowe The Serbian People on the other side of the Globe,
    to decide their own Future ?

    Go to Hell US and the West !

    Arn.Sweden.
    (Arn.Sweden., 11 January 2017 08:46)

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  9. How can you tolerate Jan 9th in one hand and complain Aug 5th in the other?

    Man can you see Big Serbia dream still alive and they keep talking big Albania, where is the protest note by Dacic and Vucic on this?

    You see Serbia is pushing for Serbska and North and if it can before Montenegro joins NATO get access tot he sea otherwise landlocked - the biggest wet dream of Serb nationalist!

    Interesting how in his dream map Serbia does not lose Novi Pazar or Presevo vally but only gains, what's this different from 1990s Slobo is dead and Croatia is off the table?

    Are Balkan leaders ready to sacrefice another generation of children for their own gains - NO SERB, ALBANIAN, CROAT or BOSNIAK will benefit form this except same people in leadership.

    Wake up Balkans and don't tolerate this crazy people to rule you.

    In the weak where Cypres is negotiating to unify this man talks seperation!!!
    (cuarteador, 11 January 2017 00:49)

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  10. Dodik seems to be persistent in becoming the hangman of the BIH cloud. But best if it is dismounted after the EU collapses. Under some international supervision. Croatia is a natural ally here I think.
    (rote, 10 January 2017 17:34)

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