Latest poll predict tight presidential race

CeSID's latest polls shows that the result of the Jan. 20 election is the most difficult to predict so far. Nine candidates are running the race to become Serbia's first president since it once again became independent in 2006, but CeSID says its survey, conducted December 25-31, shows that the results of the contest will be highly uncertain. Latest poll predict tight presidential race 1,502 residents, excluding those in Kosovo, were interviewed, and their answers suggest that while 33 percent of voters will not turn out, those who do will send incumbent Boris Tadic, and the Radicals's (SRS) candidate Tomislav Nikolic to the second round. At the same time, the poll shows that there will be between 100,000 and 200,000 votes in favor of Nikolic in the first round. The third place will likely be fought for by New Serbia's Velimir Ilic and Milutin Mrkonjic of the Socialists Party of Serbia (SPS). As for the winner, to be decided in the run-off on February 3, voter turnout will play a crucial role, CeSID team member Djordje Vukovic told reporters in Belgrade today. "Our estimates show that if up to three million voters go to the polls, it is highly likely that Nikolic will win. If, however, more than 3.3 million voters turn out, the victory will be Tadic's," he explained, and added that a turnout between the figures he mentioned would spell a highly tight and uncertain race. Considering that Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica can, according to CeSID, count with 300,000 faithful voters, his endorsement of a second round candidate could also play an important role. As for the front runners, the poll results are as follows: Nikolic, 21 percent, Tadic, 19 percent, Ilic and Mrkonjic four percent each, Cedomir Jovanovic three percent. CeSID calculates its projections based on the total number of eligible voters. A CESID team in news conference (FoNet)

Latest poll predict tight presidential race

1,502 residents, excluding those in Kosovo, were interviewed, and their answers suggest that while 33 percent of voters will not turn out, those who do will send incumbent Boris Tadić, and the Radicals's (SRS) candidate Tomislav Nikolić to the second round.

At the same time, the poll shows that there will be between 100,000 and 200,000 votes in favor of Nikolić in the first round.

The third place will likely be fought for by New Serbia's Velimir Ilić and Milutin Mrkonjić of the Socialists Party of Serbia (SPS).

As for the winner, to be decided in the run-off on February 3, voter turnout will play a crucial role, CeSID team member Đorđe Vuković told reporters in Belgrade today.

"Our estimates show that if up to three million voters go to the polls, it is highly likely that Nikolić will win. If, however, more than 3.3 million voters turn out, the victory will be Tadić's," he explained, and added that a turnout between the figures he mentioned would spell a highly tight and uncertain race.

Considering that Prime Minister Vojislav Koštunica can, according to CeSID, count with 300,000 faithful voters, his endorsement of a second round candidate could also play an important role.

As for the front runners, the poll results are as follows: Nikolić, 21 percent, Tadić, 19 percent, Ilić and Mrkonjić four percent each, Čedomir Jovanović three percent.

CeSID calculates its projections based on the total number of eligible voters.