Parallel universes and self-fulfilling prophecies

Parallel universes and self-fulfilling prophecies

The three each lived in their own particular universe, reinforced by a compliant media, and considered by its inhabitants as REALITY. They shared a belief that their particular ethnic group was a victim of the others and that they bore no responsibility for the violence which took place. 

Each fervently believes to this day that the “others” started it.

The divide over Kosovo is far, far stronger than that in Bosnia and Croatia. There have been parallel universes in Kosovo for centuries and the upsurge in violence and upheaval in the past couple of decades has only strengthened them.

The Serbs cite Kosovo as their historical and cultural center. They believe that Albanians had waves of incursions into Kosovo which have distorted the ethnic balance. They cite decades of subsidies and special funding for Kosovo during the Communist era as evidence of both their good will and how the Albanians abused it.

They believe that the Albanians duped the West with phony or exaggerated human rights complaints; that they are not to be trusted; and most either are or aid and abet criminals and terrorists. When asked what Serbia should do with 2 million impoverished Kosovo Albanians, an uncomfortable percentage of Serbs believe that they should simply be throw out “back to Albania where most of them came from.”

They cite the tens of thousands of Serbian refugees from Kosovo, their inability to return to their homes, the Serbs missing from the recent conflict, and lack of action against the perpetrators.

The Kosovo Albanians believe that they have been subject to decades of repression and mistreatment by the Serbs. They can cite their own historical presence in Kosovo for centuries. Even though a minority in Kosovo during the post-World War II era, the Serbs still held the lion’s share of positions of responsibility and even ordinary jobs.

The Albanians are absolutely, incontrovertibly passionate that they will never again be under Belgrade’s yoke. They see absolutely no fundamental difference between the Serbia of today and that of the Milosevic years, primarily because of Belgrade’s refusal to give up its claim to Kosovo.

The Kosovo Liberation Army is a group of terrorists to the Serbs and heroes to the Albanians. Unlike in Bosnia or Croatia, there was almost no intermarriage between the ethnic groups in Kosovo.

The most depressing factor in all of the above is that with notable lonely exceptions, virtually all the pillars of society in Belgrade and Priština (politicians, the media, universities, government and the church) not only do not question these different universes, but in fact actually are instrumental in fostering them.

They day by day, brick by brick, are building the walls higher rather than helping to tear from down (as they should if they fully embrace the philosophy behind the European Union).

For years, Ibrahim Rugova was the recognized single voice for the Kosovo Albanian people. His message was consistently one of non-violence, seeking of human rights for his people, and absolutely no discussion whatsoever of independence. 

Beginning in 1995, however, violence in Kosovo began to escalate and in February, 1996 the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) announced itself and began a series of attacks on Serb police units, installations, and government officials.

The KLA leadership was frustrated and fed-up with the non-violent approach of Rugova and believed (rightly, as it turns out) that if they could provoke the Belgrade authorities to (over)react, the West would intervene on their behalf.

That is exactly what happened, despite the fact that at least at one critical stage in 1997, the American envoy for the region, Robert Gelbard, specifically called them terrorists and they were added to the State Department’s list of terrorist organizations. Significantly, they were removed from that list about one year later.

What the members of the KLA and the Kosovo Albanians took away from that experience was that the non-violent path advocated by Rugova got them nowhere and it was only through the willingness to use force did they reach their objectives. Anyone who thinks that they have forgotten that lesson is very naïve.

This brings us to the current impasse. Let’s consider the two “Great Powers” whose ability to veto UN Security Council Resolutions is almost certainly going to prevent any meaningful resolution from passing through the Security Council. Consider, for example, China’s treatment of Tibet or Russia’s brutal actions in Chechnya. Both actions were and are far worse than Milosevic’s treatment of the Kosovo Albanians.  

Yet because of the size and military power of Russia and China, the reaction of the international community has been limited to weak condemnations with no teeth whatsoever.

How can we ever expect two nations that have themselves repressed similar independence movements with all means possible, including massive human rights violations, to permit a Resolution to pass the UN Security Council which penalizes Serbia by granting Kosovo independence for doing something similar?  

The Chinese are obsessed with regaining control of Taiwan and could also worry that a Resolution leading to Kosovo independence could well bolster separatists in Taiwan itself.

So what happens in the absence of significant action by the UN Security Council? Unfortunately, probably a self-fulfilling prophecy. Faced with the growing certainty of Russian intransigence, senior American officials and influential non-governmental actors have more and more stridently warned of the possibility of a unilateral declaration of independence and/or significantly increased levels of violence in Kosovo.

Some have even gone so far as to directly or indirectly encourage such a referendum and subsequent international recognition of the result. The problem is that regardless of the intent, the message being received in Kosovo, at least by extremists, is probably an encouragement of exactly the sort of actions we are expressing concerns about. In other words, a self-fulfilling prophecy with serious repercussions for this region.

What angers knowledgeable observers is that it will fall to the KFOR forces on the ground to react to or prevent violence and possibly to prevent any referendum. Any of the above actions will put the KFOR troops very much in the line of fire and Kosovo Albanian extremists are likely to begin to see these troops as the problem or at least an obstacle to independence.  Meanwhile, Russia has withdrawn its forces from Kosovo and will pay absolutely no price whatsoever in any ensuing violence.

The absolute worst case scenario would be a unilateral declaration of independence or announced referendum by the Kosovo Albanians. This could easily and quickly lead to a repeat of the actions taken by breakaway Serb units in Bosnia and Kosovo sixteen years ago. I can imagine in those circumstances, Serbian “volunteers” going to Kosovo to protect their compatriots.

Even if there is no referendum, it is hard to imagine that violence against Serbs and the International Community will not take place and escalate. Just as the KLA emerged independently at a time of its own choosing, a similar movement (probably composed of many of the same KLA) can emerge again.

The United States has been principally responsible for forcing the pace of resolution of final status of Kosovo in order to withdraw its troops from there as fast as possible. Ironically, it is highly likely that they will end up with exactly the opposite situation: withdrawal even further away and a far more complicated and dangerous situation for its troops on the ground.