Unexpected Outcome in Russia

After four years of war and sustained Western sanctions, a growing number of experts from leading research institutions are beginning to acknowledge that the Russian economy is not deteriorating as rapidly as previously predicted. A new report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy warns of "structural exhaustion," but developments on the ground present a far more complex picture.

Charles Hacker of the Royal United Services Institute believes that Russia is "probably already entering a recession," while Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute for Strategic Studies speaks of "an impending crisis in the Russian political economy." Even official Russian data show a slight decline in GDP of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. However, many analysts caution that such assessments may be premature, according to The Economist.

Since the start of the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has managed to mitigate the impact of sanctions by redirecting trade toward China, India, and other countries, while drawing heavily on state resources to fund military spending, infrastructure projects, and social programs. Between 2022 and 2025, GDP per capita increased by 12%, modest compared with China or India, but far from the economic collapse many had predicted.

Official statistics can also be misleading. An increase in VAT from 20% to 22% encouraged consumers to bring forward purchases in late 2025, artificially boosting economic activity in one quarter at the expense of the next. Alternative indicators compiled by Goldman Sachs point to slow but continued growth, while data from Russia's VEB bank show that economic activity picked up in March and April, partly due to higher oil prices.

Consumer confidence has fallen from record highs, but unemployment remains exceptionally low at around 2%. Inflation has fallen by half from its peak, real wages are 25% higher than in 2019, and some companies continue to post strong results. For example, Aeroflot recorded a new passenger-distance record during the first five months of 2026. The luxury goods segment is also thriving, with sales of imported luxury vehicles, including unofficially imported Lamborghinis and other high-end brands, rising by 80% compared with the previous year.

The primary driver of growth remains massive military spending, which now amounts to 7–8% of GDP. Although this places pressure on both the labor market and public finances, analysts note that spending has increased by "only" 3–4 percentage points compared with pre-war levels, enough to support economic activity without overwhelming the broader economy.

Russia can finance its budget deficit through higher taxes, reserve funds, or domestic borrowing. As a last resort, more coercive measures, such as restrictions affecting private savings, could be considered, although such steps would carry significant economic and political risks.

According to analysts, Russia's economy is expected to grow by around 1% this year, a rate comparable to that of France or Canada. Stricter sanctions and lower oil prices could weaken that growth, but a severe contraction of Russia's wartime economy would likely require far more extensive measures.