Is this Putin's next target?

Once a tourist destination with beautiful medieval towns and picturesque beaches, Gotland has been transformed into a heavily fortified military stronghold, and experts often call it an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" or "NATO’s anchor." The island’s location, just three hundred kilometers from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, makes it crucial for controlling sea lanes and preventing any hostile advance toward the Baltic states or Finland.

Colonel Dan Rasmussen, commander of the Gotland Regiment, emphasizes that whoever controls Gotland can decide who sails or flies in the Baltic region.

"If Russia were to seize the island, it would dramatically shift the balance of power and make it harder for NATO to send reinforcements to its Baltic allies," he warns, stressing that such a scenario would seriously threaten supply lines through the Danish straits and the Suwałki corridor, already considered the alliance’s "Achilles’ heel."

Sweden demilitarized Gotland in 2005, believing the Cold War-era threats were over. But after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, and especially following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Stockholm quickly changed course. The Gotland Regiment was re-established in 2015 and 2018, and after Sweden joined NATO in 2024, militarization accelerated.

Today, several hundred soldiers are permanently stationed on the island, along with Leopard 2 tanks, CV90 armored vehicles, and air defense systems. The plan is to have at least four thousand troops by 2027, including reserves and mobile units. Infrastructure is being intensively built—new warehouses, barracks, and command centers are emerging, with investments worth hundreds of millions of euros, and the construction of a reserve seaport has recently been approved, The Sun reports.

Experts such as Niklas Granholm from the Swedish Defense Research Agency point out that deploying modern missile systems on Gotland allows control over a large part of the Baltic Sea.

"With such range and accuracy, the island becomes key to protecting the northern Baltic," says Granholm. Former U.S. General Ben Hodges agrees: "Capturing Gotland would give Russia the power to disrupt all maritime traffic in the region."

British intelligence expert Philip Ingram concurs, emphasizing that Russian control over the island would effectively close off access to the Baltic.

Oskar Jonsson of NATO’s Defense College adds that the island would be extremely valuable for Russia in a hypothetical conflict, but that an invasion is currently nearly impossible.

"Russia is waging its largest war since World War II and has no successful amphibious operations on defended terrain. Even if they manage to take the island, how would they maintain logistics while surrounded by NATO countries on all sides?" Jonsson asks.

Meanwhile, Russian gray-zone activities—sabotage of submarine cables, “shadow fleet” operations, and unidentified incidents—only increase concern. Gotland is critical for monitoring Russian submarines and preventing such actions, as all routes to Kaliningrad or St. Petersburg pass near the island.

To prepare for the worst, Sweden and its allies regularly conduct exercises. Last September, Operation Gotland Guard was held, the first bilateral exercise between Sweden and Poland, testing rapid-response capabilities of land, sea, and air forces, including paratroopers, RBS-15 missile systems, and simulated island defense. Previously, the British, Americans, and Swedes jointly practiced HIMARS and MLRS systems on the island.

In the event of conflict, Gotland, together with Finland’s Åland and Denmark’s Bornholm, would play a role in delaying Russian attacks and giving NATO time to bring in reinforcements.

"Control of these islands is key to success in the region," concludes Granholm.

While tourists still enjoy Gotland’s beaches, the island is no longer just an idyllic vacation spot—it has become the frontline defense of free Europe against the growing Russian threat. Swedish authorities and NATO allies make it clear: Gotland is prepared, and any attempt at aggression would meet determined resistance.