Macron in a trap

The names of Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu and Justice Minister Géral Darmanin are being discussed as potential successors to the poisoned chalice of the premiership, but what would the new recruit really solve? The new prime minister will be trapped in exactly the same quagmire, writes the Brussels portal Politico.

Lekornu ROMUALD MEIGNEUX / Sipa Press / Profimedia

French politics will remain too internally divided to pass vital deficit-cutting reforms, despite Bayrou's warnings that France could be heading for a Greek-style debt crisis if it sits idly by and fails to implement unpopular 43.8 billion euro budget cuts.

Well, why not another snap election? If Macron calls new ones, the political landscape could still be stuck in exactly the same impasse – but the blame after the vote would fall more clearly on him than on his prime minister. All the while, financial markets will be losing patience with France's ability to get its books in order.

Makron Grandguillot Laurent/Pool/ABACA / Abaca Press / Profimedia

Overall, a state of shock grips elected officials, aides and advisers from the various parties supporting France's minority government.

"It's a heavy blow for the president," said a political adviser to a minister who, like others in this text, was granted anonymity to speak openly about the political chaos. They noted that a day of mass protests, which could potentially shut down the country, was on the horizon just two days after Bayrou's expected departure.

• The end for Emmanuel Macron?

"The political crisis on September 8, the social crisis on September 10. It's a crisis of the regime, isn't it?"

New man for Matignon

Macron's centrists seem to be clutching at straws. The first signals coming from the Elysée Palace seemed to indicate that the president was not considering dissolving parliament and holding new elections.

Instead, Macron is thought to be considering hiring the young, centre-right Lecornu to lead the government. Someone close to Macron said Justice Minister Darmanin, who has long eyed the premiership, is also a candidate but does not want to inherit what appears to be a suicidal mission.

Both Lecornu and Darmanin originally hailed from the conservative Republican Party and have been with Macron since 2017. Lecornu is closer to the president, and Macron almost nominated him before Bayrou imposed himself as prime minister. He is considered more obedient, while Darmanin is very ambitious and more independent minded.

Darmanin Anthony Quittot/JDD / Sipa Press / Profimedia

They noted that a day of mass protests, which could potentially bring the country to a standstill, was on the horizon just two days after the expected departure of François Bayrou.

A person close to Lecornu said the 39-year-old privately boasts of enjoying a privileged relationship with Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally party, while insisting he could lead a coalition government of both the right and the left. But will that relationship with the National Assembly help him succeed in the bloody arena of the budget where both Bayrou and former prime minister Michel Barnier failed?

Many centrists say no: There is no indication that either Le Pen or the Socialists intend to support him any more than they did with Bayrou.

"There is no scenario, no new election that can solve the crisis," said the ministerial advisor.

For conservative Republicans who support Bayrou's minority government, Lecornu's proposal is another example of an unfailingly optimistic president refusing to accept defeat. Macron himself reportedly tried to downplay the crisis at Wednesday's weekly meeting of the Council of Ministers.

"He can't help but try to regain control," said one disheartened Republican member. "It's his natural inclination."

Even a technocratic government of experts to resolve the budget mess - a rather Italian-sounding solution - would have to navigate a divided National Assembly full of MPs preparing for crucial local elections next year and a presidential election in 2027.

The elections seem unappealing

However, returning the French to the polls carries its own risks for a president who is worried about his legacy. After all, it was the surprise snap vote after last summer's European elections that brought France to its current impasse and irrevocably damaged Macron's reputation.

Polls show voters could easily bring another parliament out of power in any election in the coming weeks or months.

"The worst thing for him is a dissolution that doesn't work, because then he is the one who will be kicked out," said another ministerial adviser.

Someone close to Emmanuel Macron said Justice Minister Darmanin, who has long targeted the premiership, is also a candidate but does not want to inherit what appears to be a suicidal mission.

ABACAPRESS, Abaca Press / Alamy / Profimedia

However, that doesn't mean it's impossible. Before Monday, Macron had repeatedly ruled out calling new elections before the end of his term, but the Elysée Palace insists he will not be stripped of his constitutional powers.

"Mystery is part of the presidential strategy," said a close associate of Macron.

Bayrou for president

Bayrou's camp, meanwhile, remains stunned at the speed with which opposition MPs - particularly the far right - sealed his fate and is struggling to convince people that the situation is under control.

Bajru EPA/TERESA SUAREZ

One person in the prime minister's circle said he hoped the National Assembly would reconsider its position after 48 hours. The hope was that Bayrou's team could do the dirty work of balancing France's books before 2027 while avoiding the danger of a legislative election in which Le Pen would be barred from running because of her embezzlement conviction.

For now, Bayrou appears to be fighting the battle in the court of public opinion, giving a flurry of speeches and interviews in the hope of leaving the Matignon Palace, the prime minister's residence, with his head held high.

It has the flavor of a 2027 campaign, and Bayrou has long been aiming for the Elysée Palace.

"At least he will earn his due as a presidential candidate," said Macron supporter.