Trump's "dream team" heading for a clash? Rubio closes in on Vance

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has recorded a double-digit surge in support in polls regarding possible Republican candidates for the 2028 presidential election, while Vice President J. D. Vance has seen his support decline, according to a new poll by Emerson College Polling. As a result, the race for the Republican nomination — although still far off — has become significantly more uncertain compared to earlier polls that gave Vance a commanding lead, Newsweek reports.

A nearly tied race

According to Emerson’s latest poll, conducted on May 24 and 25, Vance has the support of 35.5 percent of potential Republican voters, while Rubio stands at 34.6 percent. Ron DeSantis is a distant third with 5.4 percent, while former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley received 4.6 percent. About 15 percent of respondents remained undecided.

The survey was conducted on a sample of 432 likely Republican voters, with a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points.

These results represent a dramatic shift compared to February, when Vance held 52 percent support against Rubio’s 20 percent. In August of last year, Vance also stood at 52 percent, while Rubio was at just nine percent.

“The Republican primary has changed significantly since February. Potential 2028 candidates are now essentially tied,” said Spencer Kimball.

“Rubio has found support among Republican voters over the age of 50, where he leads Vance by six percentage points, while Vance has the advantage among younger Republicans,” Kimball added.

Reactions and speculation

None of the politicians mentioned have officially announced their candidacies yet. Asked earlier this month about a possible run after President Donald Trump described him and Rubio as a “dream team,” Vance dismissed the speculation.

He said Americans would probably not look favorably on “someone who has barely been in one office for a year and a half already campaigning for a job two and a half years away.”

“There are few topics I want to talk about less,” Vance said.

The White House insists it remains focused on the present.

“The president assembled an all-star team that has achieved unprecedented success in just over a year. No amount of wild media speculation about Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio will distract this administration from fighting for the American people,” said White House communications director Steven Cheung.

Professor Robert Shapiro of Columbia University believes Rubio’s rise in support is the result of his increasingly prominent role.

“Rubio has clearly overshadowed Vance on the issue of the war in Iran and foreign policy. He has outperformed him as a national leader, leaving Vance behind,” Shapiro told Newsweek.

He added that it is still too early for official campaign announcements and that both men will follow Trump’s instructions.

“Trump’s endorsement means everything here. Given Rubio’s rise, Vance’s best chance of becoming president may be invoking the 25th Amendment in the event of a sudden decline or deterioration in Trump’s health,” Shapiro assessed.

The state of the Democrats

On the Democratic side, Emerson’s poll shows former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg with support from 18 percent of voters, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16 percent.

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez received 11 percent, while former Vice President Kamala Harris and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro each received 10 percent.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear received nine percent support, while 18 percent of respondents were undecided.