Turkey on edge: Fears the worst-case scenario

Turkey has traditionally positioned itself as a mediator between East and West, maintaining relations both with the EU and with Middle Eastern states. In the dispute between the United States and Iran, Ankara has repeatedly tried to act as a mediator, but without success – the war may have only been postponed, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said.

Fidan emphasized that he immediately informed President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: ‘There were dark moments; every minute we expected war or the first attack.’

Turkey fears that a conflict with Iran could escalate into a broader regional war. Authorities are concerned about humanitarian, economic, and political consequences – inflation, problems with energy supplies, losses in tourism, and the potential renewal of clashes with Kurdish groups.

As a NATO member, Turkey is maintaining a neutral stance, and Iran has not attacked bases or NATO radar systems. Ankara is intensifying diplomatic efforts with the United States, the EU, and Gulf countries, but negotiations are currently not progressing.

Particular concern has been caused by media speculation about the possible involvement of Kurdish troops in Iran. Turkey wants to prevent ethnic clashes and a new wave of refugees, preparing camps and strengthening its border. If an exodus occurs, more than two million Afghan refugees currently in Iran could also attempt to flee.

A statement by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praising Erdoğan’s preparations has further unsettled Turkey, as many believe the EU is once again counting on Turkey as a ‘buffer zone’ for refugees.