Catastrophic forecast for Europe: Losses will be measured in millions

It is recalled that in the three largest European countries, France, Germany and Great Britain, the most popular parties are actually right-wing parties that strongly oppose the migration policies of their countries, which have led to a massive influx of migrants to European countries.

The British Guardian published a large article with interactive graphics and other visual materials, which echo the gloomy forecasts of demographers that Europe is facing a huge demographic problem.

This problem is already alarming, as it is stated, and it could be alleviated precisely by the influx of migrants, the Guardian states, referring to the analyzes of experts, because - if right-wingers come to power, who advocate for the expulsion of migrants, Europe would enter a situation of economic collapse.

Tanjug/AP Photo/Joanna Chan

According to Eurostat, by 2100, it is inevitable in every scenario. However, according to the current migration policy, today's 447 million inhabitants will turn into 419.

But if the hopes of the right come true and they come to power, close the borders to migrants, the population of Europe will decrease by more than a third by the end of the century - to 295 million.

Italy and Spain, with their low birth rates, will suffer in particular: they will lose almost half of their population, and other countries will lose a quarter to a third of the people who now live in those countries.

Moreover, the population will not only shrink, but also age. Currently, 21 percent of Europeans are 65 and over, and in Eurostat's baseline scenario, that figure will be 32 percent by 2100, and 36 percent with zero immigration.

This means that the social burden on the working-age population will increase significantly, and in many countries this is already happening, writes the Guardian.

Migration would help, if not completely correct the situation, then make it less dramatic, according to the Guardian.

"However, for immigration to be useful, immigrants must work, and employment in this layer is usually quite low," admits Alan Manning, a professor at the London School of Economics.

"If an immigrant does not work and needs support, social security, it does not improve the situation - on the contrary, it worsens it," he added.

However, RIA Novosti reports that experts have told them that the benefits of a large number of migrants for the economy are "ambiguous".

"Of course, we cannot say that all migrants are lazy, parasites, hooligans. Many have successfully adapted and hold high positions. In France, there are politicians and even ministers of non-native origin. But in general, the topic remains extremely painful," says Sergey Fedorov, leading researcher at the Institute for Russian Europe of the Academy of Sciences.

The fundamental difficulty, however, lies in the civilizational difference. In France and some other countries, the key problem is the spread of radical Islam, the expert explains.

Islamist organizations promote an ideology that is foreign to French republican values ​​- separation of religion and state, equal rights. And now, in the background of the war in Gaza, they are increasingly organizing anti-Semitic actions.

"The situation is aggravated by the formation of immigrant ghettos, the growth of crime and drug trafficking," continues Fedorov.

"The state is not able to cope with the expulsion of illegal immigrants: those who refuse remain in the country, and their deportation requires huge financial costs. According to various estimates, there are hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants in France — this creates fertile ground for these acute social problems," added this Russian expert.

However, the problem also arises when the share of newly arrived population exceeds five percent, because then insurmountable difficulties with integration arise. However, no European country has a ready-made recipe for how to fix it.

"For example, in France, there have been several attempts to integrate migrants into society," says Fedorov.

The key question for the EU is therefore probably not whether there should be migration, but how to manage it. Not only the economic future, but also social stability depends on whether politicians can deal with it. However, more and more Europeans seem to believe that this task is beyond the current elites, RIA Novosti concludes.