Ahtisaari: Kosovo meeting in the near future

Ahtisaari: Kosovo meeting in the near future

In the meantime, prime minister Koštunica’s UN address met with mixed reactions. While some state his words made no impact, others emphasize that the Serbian prime minister left the UN encouraged. Diplomatic talk connoisseurs point out to the fact none of the administration officials Koštunica met with made public statements, which is interpreted as testing the water before the crucial set of negotiations.

Apart from the Russian representative to the UN, none of the other UN Security Council members commented on Koštunica’s speech. Vitaly Churkin told the journalists it would be wrong to impose a solution, because that would ‘destabilize the situation and would make for a very negative precedent in international dealings’. BBC reports that China and Russia supported Serbia’s stance at a UN Security Council closed meeting, while France, the U.S. and the UK advised reaching a solution by the end of the year.

Former CIA deputy chief Steven Mayer said Koštunica was received with courtesy in Washington, Berlin, London and Paris, without his arguments really being taken into account. He thinks that the U.S. gave Koštunica a clear message by the very fact he was denied a meeting with George Bush.

Insiders expect crucial talks to take place within the Contact Group, between Russia and the other members. They say it is inevitable that the talks will last until the end of the year.

Good opportunity

Former FM Goran Svilanović said both reactions on Koštunica speech – positive and negative – are extreme, and stresses the importance of the fact Koštunica had an opportunity to express Serbia’s attitudes in Washington and New York. ‘This cycle of talks is very important because of those meetings, because of the opportunity to state Serbia’s position in advance, so that the September meeting can be successful, with all the parties prepared to hear our arguments. At the same time, these talks were an opportunity for our public to hear the other side’s arguments. I have no doubt these countries’ positions were clearly stated, just as I believe they have listened to our arguments carefully. I think that Belgrade, Priština and the Contact Group will enter the September round of talks dedicated to the Kosovo status well prepared’, Svilanović said.

Svilanović does not see Koštunica’s failure to meet with the U.S. president as a major blow to the prime minister. ‘So far Koštunica managed to meet Bush as Yugoslav president and Zoran Đinđić met him as the PM and those have been the only occasions in the past five years that an official from our country met with an American president. Therefore I am not inclined to judge Koštunica harshly. I think it is important that the Serbian PM had an opportunity to express his policies, and that he did that in Washington.’

Politika daily editor Ljiljana Smajlović told B92 she did not believe Koštunica had any success winning over the U.S. officials, but that Russian support appeared influential.

‘I think that the Russian support, that is, a combination of Russian and Chinese activity at the UN might still bring some advantage to Serbia. This after all showed that sovereign countries take precedence over unrecognized runaway territories, even if they are UN-administered. The fact that Russia raised its tone a little lately, as well as reiterating that a solution need not be reached by the end of the year nor should it be imposed, are all signals testifying to Belgrade’s advantage, of course, if we agree it is in our interest to prevent Kosovo’s independence at least during this year’, Smajlović said.

‘It seems that the PM’s insistence on the democratic Serbia’s refusal to accept Kosovo’s independence met with good reactions at the UN. Security Council will always lean a little in favor or sovereign and recognized states. Clearly, Washington is pushing for independence, but it is not insignificant that Washington would never state that officially. To sum the situation, Security Council is somewhat on our side, while countries that are working against us will not say so publicly, which is an important psychological point in our favor’, Ljiljana Smajlović said.

‘Belgrade will attend the forthcoming high level negotiations in order not to be accused of obstruction. I think that the vast autonomy offer is a fair offer and that Belgrade has a leg to stand on in Vienna, although no one going there is happy about an opportunity to sit across the table from Agim Ceku’, she said.

At the same time, while the Serbian PM explained the details of what he had told his hosts in Washington, the White House gave no information regarding the U.S. officials’ messages to Koštunica. Daniel Serwer, vice president of the Center for Post-Conflict Peace and Stability Operations at the US Institute of Peace, estimates that the U.S. officials told Koštunica they were ready to establish vital strategic relations with Serbia, but that Kosovo status had to be determined by the end of this, or the beginning of next year- and determined clearly, unequivocally, without delay or territorial partition.