The question on everyone's mind: Putin, what now?

For that reason, Jutarnji list reports, Western policymakers are preparing for a summer marked by a possible escalation of the conflict.

“The question we are all asking ourselves is what Putin will do,” one of them said, according to the Financial Times.

In his commentary, author Gideon Rachman writes that there are two “schools” of thought among Western strategists.

The first believes that the world is entering a very dangerous period and that Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, backed into a corner, could resort to further escalation in an attempt to change the course of the war.

The second school believes that Putin’s actual options for escalation are, in reality, quite limited.

Therefore, the greater danger could be that Western politicians become so afraid of the threat of Russian escalation that they begin pressuring Ukraine to abandon further resistance.

Four main possible directions of escalation:

1. Conventional military operations on the front in Ukraine;
2. The use of nuclear weapons;
3. A direct attack on NATO;
4. So-called hybrid warfare — covert Russian operations targeting Western infrastructure or individuals.

It is also expected that Moscow will send even more soldiers into the “meat grinder” on the front during the summer.

Western officials estimate that Russia is currently losing troops faster than it can replace them — around 35,000 killed or wounded per month.

Speculation has also emerged that Putin could declare a general mobilization, but such a move could trigger public discontent.

The Financial Times writes that, after more than four years of costly fighting, there are few signs that Russia is on the verge of achieving a decisive military breakthrough. Putin’s desire for revenge and escalation could therefore be reflected in even more indiscriminate attacks, such as missile and drone strikes like those that killed 30 civilians in Kyiv last week. However, no matter how brutal and destructive they may be, such attacks are unlikely to change the course of the war, the FT columnist writes.

It is also recalled that throughout the conflict, Putin and members of his inner circle have repeatedly hinted at the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons.

However, those threats are taken far less seriously today than at the beginning of the war, as Western officials believe that Chinese President Xi Jinping warned Putin not to resort to nuclear weapons.

They also believe that the Kremlin understands the risk of direct Western military intervention if Russia were to use nuclear weapons.

Some Western leaders are therefore preparing more for a possible Russian provocation targeting the Baltic states or Poland.

A direct Russian attack, the author assesses, appears unlikely. Nevertheless, Western strategists have long warned of the possibility of some form of Russian intervention that would be presented as a response to alleged NATO aggression or as an attempt to protect Russian-speaking populations in the Baltic states.

The goal could be to trigger a military and diplomatic crisis that would divide the Western alliance and lead to increased U.S. pressure on Ukraine to accept territorial concessions.

But the question is whether Putin would actually be willing to take such a risk.

Over the past four years, he has consistently avoided such a confrontation with NATO, despite concerns that Russia could attack supply routes on Alliance territory through which Ukraine receives Western weapons.

An escalation in the Baltics could also require the redeployment of Russian forces from the Ukrainian front, while Putin would have to consider the possibility that opening a second front directly against NATO could end in failure and represent a serious humiliation for Russia.

All options are bad

Therefore, Rachman writes, hybrid warfare remains an option.

There have been many such activities over the past four years. However, further escalation of hybrid warfare targeting civilian infrastructure would also carry serious risks, and the West would almost certainly respond with countermeasures, the article states.

Security officials warn that Russia, the United States and its allies, as well as China, have likely already planted a kind of “cyber equivalent of unexploded bombs” within each other’s critical infrastructure.

Putin, therefore, does have options for escalation, but his problem is that all of them are bad.