Trump's move could 'ignite the planet': China and Russia now have justification to 'flex their muscles'

Analysts have expressed concern that the U.S. operation to kidnap Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and take control of the country’s oil industry could embolden Beijing, which has long claimed that Taiwan is a breakaway province that must be "reunited" with the mainland. Taiwan has its own democratically elected government and maintains that its people should decide their own future.

The Chinese government has sharply criticized Trump’s actions in Venezuela while formally rejecting comparisons with its own claims over Taiwan. However, reading Chinese state media paints a different picture.

They now have “rhetorical cover”

Chinese commentators and military analysts have been increasingly writing—even before the Venezuela operation—that U.S. moves abroad reveal a flexible interpretation of sovereignty when Washington perceives its interests to be at stake. The removal of Maduro, accompanied by explicit U.S. involvement in managing the transition, risks being cited in future Chinese narratives as evidence that great powers directly intervene whenever geopolitical or economic interests demand it. This could raise concerns in neighboring Taiwan, where such an argument carries particular weight, especially after the People’s Liberation Army recently conducted large air and naval exercises around Taiwan, simulating blockades and joint strike operations.

In Chinese discourse, Taiwan is presented as an internal matter, but Beijing has long fought against Western criticism of any use of force against the island. The Venezuela operation could now provide rhetorical cover. Chinese officials could point to U.S. actions in the Western Hemisphere to argue that Washington has weakened its own moral authority in order to oppose decisive measures elsewhere, according to BneIntelliNews.

It is important to note that China has had significant investments in Venezuela, and Trump’s move is at least partly aimed at curbing Chinese influence.

“The U.S. violated international law by using force against a sovereign state,” said Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of China, during a regular briefing on Wednesday. “We strongly oppose this,” Chen added, according to China Daily.

EPA/Eddie Cheng

Western commentators have expressed concern over the events unfolding in Venezuela, saying that they could strengthen Beijing’s position regarding its options on Taiwan, if not used directly to justify China’s own military actions.

Tony Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie China Center, noted that “Washington’s portrayal of the operation in Venezuela as law enforcement largely reflects China’s own legal characterization of plans against Taiwan.”

The “Sphere of Influence” Narrative

Emily Thornberry, Chair of the British Foreign Affairs Committee, stated on the BBC Radio 4 program Westminster Hour that the U.S. strike on Venezuela “was not a legal action” and could embolden China and Russia.

She said the attack was justified by Trump’s view that South America is also his “sphere of influence.”

“President Putin will likely say, ‘Well, Ukraine is in my sphere of influence—what are you complaining about?’ And Xi could say the same about Taiwan. This sets a terrible precedent and is truly worrying.”

Beijing has formally rejected the comparison. Chen said that Taiwan’s status is fundamentally different, describing it as “Chinese Taiwan” and stating that its future is an “internal matter” for the Chinese people.

EPA-EFE/RITCHIE B. TONGO

At the same time, he issued a direct warning to pro-independence groups on the island, saying: “If the separatist ‘Taiwan independence’ forces dare to take reckless actions and cross the red line, we will take decisive measures and deliver a direct strike.”

U.S. Intelligence: Chinese Military Will Soon Be Ready

China considers Taiwan part of its territory, despite the island having its own government, military, and democratic system since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949. Most Western countries, including the United Kingdom, diplomatically recognize Beijing rather than Taipei as the legitimate government, but they oppose any unilateral change to the status quo, especially by force.

Tensions in the Taiwan Strait have increased in recent years as China has ramped up military pressure on the island, while the U.S. has strengthened its political and military support for Taipei.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly stated that he is prepared to “reunify” the island with the mainland, using force if necessary. Reports from U.S. intelligence agencies indicate that the Chinese military could be ready to launch an invasion by 2027—which is now less than a year away.