"Zelensky's downfall"

In a statement released after the operation, it was reported that the scheme was run by a “high-ranking criminal organization” that planned to divert around $100 million from the energy sector — even as Ukraine endures daily Russian attacks on its infrastructure.

The announcement caused a political explosion. Businessman Timur Mindich, co-owner of the media house Kvartal 95 founded by Volodymyr Zelensky, was named as the alleged organizer. Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko was suspended over possible involvement, while Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk resigned, reportedly at Zelensky’s request. Both deny any wrongdoing.

Although the investigation involves one of his closest associates, Zelensky publicly backed NABU’s actions. He said effective anti-corruption measures were “urgently needed” and emphasized that everyone involved must be punished.

This marks a major turnaround from his failed attempt in July to bring Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies under presidential control. Yet the situation also opens the door to uncomfortable details that could damage his reputation as a wartime leader and his prospects for re-election after the war.

An awkward relationship between Zelensky and Mindich

Zelensky’s relationship with Mindich will be under special scrutiny in the coming days. In a 2022 interview with Ukrainska Pravda, oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky stated that it was Mindich who introduced him to Zelensky.

Mindich played a key role in building that alliance. Kolomoisky heavily supported Zelensky’s 2019 presidential campaign. Although Zelensky revoked his Ukrainian citizenship in 2022 and the SBU later arrested Kolomoisky for money laundering in 2023, the indictment against Mindich has revived questions about that relationship.

Mindich’s easy access to the presidential administration adds to the suspicions. Besides the fact that Zelensky reportedly used his armored car, Mindich also met several times with Andriy Yermak, the head of the presidential office. While none of this proves that Zelensky tolerated possible abuses, it raises questions about his judgment and the circle he has built around himself.

Because of these suspicions, the toxicity of the energy scandal, and the potential fall of Pokrovsk, speculation about the political end of Zelensky is growing louder.

Zelensky has already survived the impossible

Still, the president’s remarkable political instincts mean he shouldn’t be written off too soon. Even before the war, he was trailing Petro Poroshenko in the polls, but his decisive response in the first days of Russia’s invasion turned him into a national hero.

When Valerii Zaluzhnyi — now ambassador to London — overtook Zelensky in popularity last year, the president managed to flip the narrative and rally patriotic sentiment after a failed Oval Office meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. If he allows this investigation to run its full course, the scandal could even provide him with political ammunition.

Zelensky was elected in 2019 on a platform of fighting political and military corruption, but many saw his early investigations as politically motivated. Few Ukrainians mourned the sanctions against Viktor Medvedchuk in 2021, yet actions against Poroshenko fueled perceptions that Zelensky was using anti-corruption procedures to target his rivals.

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He now has a chance to change that narrative. Although Mindich has reportedly fled the country and is unlikely to be arrested, a trial in absentia would demonstrate that no one is above the law. Zelensky could also gain political points for taking on Ukraine’s notoriously opaque energy sector.

The energy sector has long been a hotspot of corruption

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the coal industry was a breeding ground for oligarchic profits built on corrupt subsidies. When then–Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko tried to introduce reforms, President Leonid Kuchma immediately dismissed her.

A strong anti-corruption drive in the energy sector today would have a major impact on both Ukraine’s short-term financing and its long-term reconstruction strategy. NABU’s raids coincided with a £13 million British donation and a €40 million German contribution for rebuilding the energy grid destroyed by Russian attacks. Effective anti-corruption measures would reduce the risk of aid misuse and weaken Ukraine’s opponents within former U.S. President Donald Trump’s circle.

Ukraine is also seeking to position itself as a future hub for renewable energy in Europe and to attract major investments from the EU and the EBRD. A stable and transparent environment is essential for such investments.

The energy scandal represents a crucial test for Volodymyr Zelensky. His response to NABU’s actions could determine whether this crisis strengthens or undermines his chances of re-election after the war.