Volodymyr Zelensky is going down?

As recalled by the Ukrainian portal "Strana", Kellogg recently spoke about the need to hold elections in Ukraine, and Reuters information indicates that Washington is promoting a plan to end the war based on the formula "ceasefire - elections - conclusion of a peace agreement by the new Ukrainian government".

Moscow also constantly insists on this, practically openly making it known that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is almost the main obstacle to peace talks on ending the war.

"The convergence of Washington's and Moscow's positions on the issue of the election is worrying. I see this as the first sign that Trump and Putin agree on one thing: they want to remove Zelensky," Politico quotes one of the former Ukrainian ministers.

Does this really mean that Washington will take a course towards a change of government in Ukraine?

Tanjug/AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, File

On the one hand, according to "Strana", Zelensky is not Trump's natural son or a rare earth metal that should be valued.

Some of his closest circle, such as, as it turns out, Elon Musk and Trump's eldest son, do not hide their negative and contemptuous attitude towards the president of Ukraine.

It is unlikely that Trump himself will have particularly warm feelings for Zelensky, given the Ukrainian president's close cooperation with the Democratic administration of Joe Biden.

And if the Kremlin's condition for a future deal on Ukraine is Zelensky's departure, Trump could see that as a completely acceptable and generally very low price for achieving goal.

Moreover, active lobbying is already underway in this direction - and not only by Russia and its allied forces.

In Washington, the topic of a change of government in Ukraine is being promoted by numerous domestic political opponents of Zelensky, including those who are betting on the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny.

But there is a problem: there are no guarantees that the new government formed after the elections in Ukraine (or the old one, if Zelensky holds out) will agree to sign any peace agreements, even if they are agreed before the elections.

The scenario described above with a ceasefire and elections is not the only scheme of "transition of power" in Ukraine that can be implemented if the appropriate decision is made.

What about resignation?

Zelensky could resign, rejecting the peace plan proposed by Trump. In this case, the President of the Verkhovna Rada, whom Vladimir Putin previously called "the only legitimate figure", would be in charge.

Moreover, most likely, not Ruslan Stefanchuk, but another figure who will be elected from the ranks of deputies before Zelensky's resignation.

And it is the new president, who has become the acting president, who will sign all the agreements on ending the war and ratify them in Rada, after which elections will be called. Technically, this is the simplest option for "transition of power".

Another option: Zelensky remains in power during the negotiations, sends President Stefanchuk in his place, who signs the agreement and then implements ratification through the Rada. And then the country goes to the polls.

Another scenario is the holding of presidential elections during the war without a ceasefire, but it is technically and politically extremely complex, and therefore unlikely.

But...

However, all these plans to "overthrow" Zelensky have one difficulty - Zelensky himself.

The current president of Ukraine, perhaps, is not a very subjective figure on a global scale. However, inside the country it is more than subjective, it controls the parliament, the government, the security forces, the army, the regional authorities and to a large extent the information space.

That is, the entire vertical is in his hands.

In order to force Zelensky to leave, Trump, if he makes such a decision, must make super-powerful and super-heavy efforts. A simple threat to stop aid will not be enough, because the effect will not be immediate, but long-term.

It is unclear whether Trump is ready for such an effort.

And, of course, the situation at the battlefield will play a big role. The terms of the talks, including Zelensky's fate, largely depend on whether they continue to deteriorate or whether the Ukrainian armed forces manage to stabilize the front.