The Ice Age has begun, it will last and will be extreme

With the arrival of the New Year, there has been a sudden shift in atmospheric patterns over the North Atlantic and Europe, opening the way for a strong incursion of Arctic air deep into southern parts of the continent.

This development is already bringing heavy snowfall, stormy winds, and a significant drop in temperatures across much of Europe, while the full effects of the winter cold are expected over the coming days.

The key cause of this cold spell is a strong high-pressure block over Greenland and the North Atlantic, which disrupted the usual westerly flow and redirected the jet stream southward.

This created a direct corridor for very cold polar air to move toward Europe and the Mediterranean, further destabilizing the polar vortex—the system that normally keeps the coldest air over the Arctic.

Temperatures well below average

The weakening of the polar vortex has allowed the cold to spread into Central, Western, and Southeastern Europe, with temperatures in many areas expected to be 12 to 15 degrees Celsius below the long-term average.

In the northernmost parts of the continent, especially Scandinavia, the cold will be even more intense.

Forecasts indicate the possibility of extreme temperatures locally dropping to –40°C, representing one of the coldest winter scenarios in recent years.

The adverse situation is also developing over the Mediterranean, where cold Arctic air is colliding with warm and very humid air masses.

Balkans in the line of fire

This strong temperature contrast favors the development of intense cyclones forming over the central Mediterranean, which then move toward the Balkan Peninsula and Eastern Europe.

These systems are bringing the harshest weather conditions, including heavy snowfall, strong winds, blizzards, and serious disruptions to transportation.

In parts of the Balkans, snowfall could locally exceed half a meter, significantly increasing the risk of traffic disruptions and problems in daily life.

While most of the inland Balkans will be under snow and cold, southern coastal areas of the region may face a different but equally dangerous scenario.

Warmer and very humid air over the coasts of Montenegro, Albania, and western Greece will bring prolonged and heavy rain, increasing the risk of flash floods and landslides, especially if the rainfall persists for several days.

Current forecasts indicate that this will not be a short-term winter “incident,” but rather a period during which cold and unstable conditions could persist at least until mid-January.

Čubrilo reveals when the thaw will come

According to new calculations by amateur meteorologist Marko Čubrilo, heavy snow will continue in the north, west, and northeast in the coming days, and freezing rain is also possible today.

“On Wednesday, cold and snow will cover most of the region. Then a brief dry period with severe frost, and next weekend a passing cloud cover and snow. Around January 14, a thaw is most likely,” Čubrilo summarized in his new forecast.