A new nuclear power is emerging

The ruling Japanese coalition, composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party, has committed to promoting the possession of nuclear-powered submarines equipped with vertical launch systems for long-range missiles.

It has now been clarified that this involves nuclear energy and cruise missiles. Japan’s previously defensive military doctrine is shifting to include counterattack capabilities, moving from passive to active defense. This change has been gradual, with a key turning point in December 2022, when Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government adopted three new strategies that fully redefined Japan’s security and defense policy.

Among other things, the government now allows Japan to strike enemy bases if there is an immediate threat, such as a missile attack from North Korea. The defense budget, long capped at 1% of GDP, may double by the end of 2027. Procurement of long-range weapons, including cruise missiles, has been approved, and the ban on exporting lethal weapons has been lifted.

Although Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution formally still forbids “waging war,” its interpretation has changed. The government now invokes the “collective right to self-defense,” meaning Japan can act not only if directly attacked, but also if its allies—primarily the U.S.—are attacked.

Most of the population still prefers Japan’s forces to remain purely defensive, but the new government is moving ahead regardless.

Japan at a turning point

Defense Minister Shinjirō Koizumi says current international circumstances make old principles insufficient:

“Japan is at a crossroads. We must move away from established practices and create a society suited to the new era. When threats become real, can our self-defense forces fully protect the country? Honestly, current capabilities are insufficient,” he said.

Japanese officials cite ongoing threats from North Korea, China’s military buildup, tensions over Taiwan and the East China Sea, and Russia’s increased presence in the Far East following its invasion of Ukraine. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has also encouraged Japan to modernize and expand its capabilities for a larger role in the Indo-Pacific.

Japan’s Self-Defense Forces are already among the most advanced and technologically sophisticated militaries in the world. According to the 2025 Global Firepower Index, Japan ranks 8th out of 145 countries, second in Asia behind China, with particular strengths in naval and air power. Active personnel number 247,150, with 56,000 in reserve. Military service is not compulsory, though this is now under consideration.

Alert: Chinese armed ships enter Japanese territorial waters

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who took office in October 2025, has announced accelerating the process, citing fears of a potential Chinese blockade of the Taiwan Strait—a situation she calls a threat to Japan’s survival, providing justification for intervention under self-defense.

Strong reaction from China

These announcements prompted a strong reaction from China:

“Japan, in attempting to justify its growing military ambitions, is creating unfounded narratives and exaggerating. China is extremely dissatisfied,” said Defense Ministry spokesperson Jiang Bin. China reminded Japan of its history of aggression and warned that it must seriously consider these lessons rather than take a path Beijing views as a return to militarism.

Potential nuclear power

Christopher B. Johnson, head of the Asia Division at the Center for International Studies in Washington, says, “In the shadow of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the largest geostrategic shift since World War II is taking place.”

“This package, if fully implemented, will completely break everything that has shaped Japanese policy since 1947, in an environment that is itself increasingly unpredictable,” he said.

Public opposition to nuclear weapons is gradually declining: around 40% of Japanese now believe the country should possess nuclear weapons.