Greece furious - two warships sent; The Russians are at the door; "This is an emergency situation for Europe"

Also in response to the surge in migration, Athens has sent two warships to patrol the Libyan coast, and is also concerned that its main rival, Turkey, is cooperating with the Libyans to divide the Mediterranean Sea into maritime zones to explore energy opportunities.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said that Libya is "an emergency that Europe must solve together," but last week's European attempt to resolve everything diplomatically turned into a farce, Jutrarnji List reported, citing a Brussels-based portal.

The role of Russia

Tanjug/AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris

“Russia’s role in Libya continues to expand, using the country as a central hub in its African strategy,” warned an unnamed EU diplomat familiar with the situation.

He added that a politically connected network of smugglers in Libya is supporting Russia’s strategic efforts, helping Moscow circumvent sanctions and weaponize migration.

But Italy and Greece know that tackling a problem as complex as Libya, a country three times the size of Spain, will require the support of key allies such as the United States and France. But the response from those allies has so far been nothing short of disappointing.

Migration back on the agenda

Tanjug/AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris

In light of the increased arrival of migrants on the island of Crete during the peak tourist season, the Greek government has announced strict new migration rules.

"The state of emergency requires urgent measures and therefore the Greek government has taken the decision to notify the European Commission that it is suspending the processing of asylum applications, initially for three months, for those arriving in Greece from North Africa by sea," Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis told MEPs.

Around 9,000 people have arrived in Crete from Libya since the beginning of the year, almost double the number in all of 2023, and last week alone, more than 2,000 migrants were disembarked on Crete.

To stem the flow of migrants, Greece deployed two warships in late June, but some government officials have warned that the naval patrols could encourage migrants to take to the water for safety.

The Greek government has been criticized by opposition officials, as well as its own, for neglecting the Libyan case in recent years.

Overall, the first half of the year saw a 7 percent increase in illegal crossings in the central Mediterranean, almost exclusively from Libya, while all other major routes saw a 20 percent drop. Greece’s measures have also raised fears in Italy that more migrants will reach its waters.

But worry alone will not bring solutions. Diplomats described last week’s mission as an attempt to find effective solutions. Of course, EU money would likely play a role.

The EU reached a highly controversial deal with Tunisia in 2023 in which it paid authorities to stop migration, but diplomats doubt that such a model could be replicated in a country like Libya, which is being destabilized by rival militias.

Russians on the doorstep

Tanjug/AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris

A recent military parade in Benghazi, which also featured Russian weapons, demonstrated the Kremlin’s growing closeness to eastern Libyan leader Khalifa Haftar, who recently banned EU officials from entering Benghazi.

According to Politico, Russia wants a foothold in the Mediterranean, especially after the new Syrian government ended Moscow’s lease on the port of Tartus following the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Italian Prime Minister Antonio Tajani has regularly warned that a replacement naval base would likely be in Libya.

According to a report by the Agenzia Nova news agency, Moscow also wants to install missile systems at the Haftar-controlled military base in Sebha in southern Libya and direct the missiles towards Europe.

Many analysts and diplomats doubt this, but even without the missiles, Russia already has several military bases in Libya from which it could, in theory, “hit Europe,” said Arturo Varvelli, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Until now, Russia has largely used Libyan bases to conduct its operations in the rest of Africa, operating mainly through the African Union Corps, with support from the Russian Defense Ministry.

There are also growing fears among southern European officials that Russia could soon use migration from Libya to repeat the hybrid war it launched on the EU’s eastern front, when it forced refugees from the Middle East to cross the Belarusian border into Poland.

But not everything is going according to plan for Russia. One diplomat said the cost of the war in Ukraine was depriving the African Union of the funds it needed to pay Libyan militias, creating tensions with its intermediaries and Haftar.

"I don't see the Russians taking over the migrant smuggling business," said Karim Mezran, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, adding: "But I see the Russians telling the people: I am the new ruler now, and you just follow my orders."

The search for allies

Despite the seriousness of these threats from Libya, Italy and Greece are struggling to convince their allies to get involved, but so far it has been to little avail.

And as the US increasingly turns to the Pacific, there is little hope that Washington will make an effort to stabilize the country. Also, the latest NATO declaration, signed on June 25 in The Hague, makes no mention of Africa at all.