A major attack on nuclear facilities is prepared; In a panic, USA withdraws the army and evacuates diplomats

It's a move that could further destabilize the Middle East and jeopardize efforts by the administration of US President Donald Trump to broker a deal to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

The US is reducing the number of personnel in the countries of the Middle East

The United States is reducing the number of its non-essential personnel in Middle Eastern countries after tensions in the region are estimated to have increased as US talks with Iran over Iran's nuclear program appear to be "deadlocked", the State Department said. The announcement states that non-essential personnel of the US embassies in Iraq, Bahrain and Kuwait have been ordered to leave those countries, AP reported.

Family members of the staff were also ordered to leave those countries.

It is not clear how extensive an Israeli attack could be, but tensions have been rising for months, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urging Trump to take advantage of what Tel Aviv sees as a moment of Iranian vulnerability to strike.

Trump has previously rejected an Israeli attack plan, insisting he wants to negotiate a deal with Tehran that would limit Iran's ability to produce nuclear fuel. Two weeks ago, he said he had warned Netanyahu not to launch an attack while negotiations between the US and Iran were ongoing.

US-Iran talks

Earlier, Reuters reported, citing an unnamed US official, that US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff plans to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Oman on Sunday to discuss Iran's response to the recent US proposal regarding the deal on Iran's nuclear program.

Iran said on Monday that it will soon present a counter-proposal for a nuclear deal with the US in response to a US offer that it said Tehran considers unacceptable.

Trump said on Monday that US-Iran talks would continue, saying he was less confident that Iran would agree to halt uranium enrichment under the deal with Washington.

US intelligence indicates that Israel is making preparations to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, according to Reuters.

Significant moves by the USA and Britain

It is not known how hard Trump tried to dissuade Netanyahu from attacking this time, but in recent days he has become less optimistic about the possibility of reaching a deal, especially after Iran's supreme leader rejected a proposal that would phase out Iran's right to enrich uranium. Netanyahu had previously reached the point from which he would bomb Iranian facilities, but at the last moment he would give up.

The news of the American withdrawal of personnel from the region, as well as the British warning to shippers about increased threats to maritime security, came only a few hours after Trump said in a podcast for the New York Post that he was "less and less convinced" of the success of negotiations with Iran.

US and Iranian negotiators are due to meet again on Sunday, although Trump said on Monday that Iran's position in the talks was "unacceptable". According to US officials, Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff still plans to attend that round of talks, which should take place in Oman.

When asked about the reasons for the withdrawal of US personnel from the region, Trump told reporters on Wednesday, arriving at a performance of Les Misérables at the Kennedy Center: "You'll have to figure it out for yourself."

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The British warning came from the maritime traffic watchdog, which announced that it was "aware of increased tensions in the region which could lead to an escalation of military activity with a direct effect on seafarers". They warned commercial vessels passing through the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz to take extra precautions.

Iran is planning a counter-strike with ballistic missiles

According to a senior Iranian official, Iran's military and government have already held crisis meetings on how to respond to a possible Israeli attack.

Tehran reportedly has a plan ready that includes an immediate counterstrike with hundreds of ballistic missiles toward Israeli territory. In October 2024, Iran had already launched a major missile attack on Israel in the context of the Gaza war, but the damage was limited then, partly due to US help in intercepting the missiles.

Trump spoke with Netanyahu again on Monday, but the White House did not release details of that conversation. Trump met with members of his National Security Council at Camp David the night before.

Tehran's harsh reaction

Iran's Defense Minister, Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh, further raised tensions on Wednesday by saying that the United States would suffer heavy losses if negotiations break down and a conflict breaks out. "America will have to leave the region because all its military bases are within our range, and we will target them without any restrictions in the host countries," he said.

Tehran also reacted sharply to the statements of US General Michael Kurilla, commander of the Central Command, who told lawmakers on Tuesday that he had presented Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth with "a range of options" for possible attacks on Iran. Kurilla's testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, scheduled for Thursday, has since been postponed without explanation.

The Iranian delegation to the UN condemned Kurilla's statements on social media, calling them "militarism" that "fuels instability".

Iran's nuclear program and possible UN condemnation

The harsh rhetoric comes in the week when the Governing Council of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meets in Vienna. The United States, Britain, France and Germany have submitted a resolution that would condemn Iran for its rapid progress in its nuclear program and violations of its obligations under the 2015 accord. The resolution is due to be voted on Thursday.

Such a conviction could serve as a legal basis for the so-called "snapback" – reintroduction of severe economic sanctions that were lifted under the 2015 agreement. The US unilaterally withdrew from that agreement in 2018, during Trump's first term, which Iran used as a justification for abandoning its obligations. The European signatories of the agreement claim that it is still legally valid and that the sanctions can be reactivated.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on social media on Wednesday that the adoption of the sentence "will force Iran to react strongly."

Oil, the Air Force and the US Navy

The US State Department has not announced how many personnel will be withdrawn from Iraq, but according to information from the Associated Press, it is about non-essential employees from the embassy in Baghdad, and employees and family members from the embassies in Bahrain and Kuwait. Most of those families belong to Navy and Marine Corps personnel stationed in Bahrain, home to one of the largest US naval bases in the region.

Since 2018, Iran's nuclear program has advanced significantly. Analysts claim that Iran is now close to having enough nuclear material to build up to ten warheads. Just building a functioning weapon could take several more months, but many senior Israeli officials already consider such progress unacceptable and are openly threatening military action.

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Some Israeli security officials believe they have a historic opportunity to solve a decades-old problem. In recent strikes, Israel has severely weakened Hezbollah and Hamas, two of Iran's key allies in the region, while Israeli airstrikes last year also damaged Iran's anti-aircraft system.

The Israeli strike is becoming increasingly risky

However, some analysts warn that Iran has already begun to restore those systems, making an Israeli military strike more risky every week. It is also unclear whether Israel can deliver a decisive blow to Iran's nuclear program without US military assistance.

On Wednesday, oil prices on the US market rose above 68 dollars per barrel, the highest since the beginning of April - when Trump introduced tariffs on almost all US trading partners. Conflict in the region could further disrupt oil supplies, as could new US restrictions on exports from Iran.

The American aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson has been in the Arabian Sea for weeks. There are more than 60 aircraft on board, including the most advanced F-35 fighters with stealth technology. A senior Navy official said there are currently no plans to move the carrier because of the current situation.

The United States has several dozen fighter and attack aircraft in the region, which played a key role in defending Israel against Iranian attacks last year.