How did the change happen in Hungary?

Viktor Orbán likely had a sense of what was coming. When U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance stood by him last week and predicted victory, Orbán simply waved it off, as if to say: “I’m not so sure.”

Since his challenger Péter Magyar emerged on the political scene in early 2024, support for the Hungarian leader had been declining, and polls ahead of the April 12 election placed him far behind his opponent.

Meanwhile, the opposition united behind Magyar with a single goal – to bring down Orbán and his Fidesz party. Here is an overview of the key reasons for his defeat, according to Politico.

Loss of public trust

Orbán’s decline began in 2024, after his government pardoned the former deputy director of a children’s home who had been convicted of covering up child sexual abuse. The scandal prompted Péter Magyar – then a government official and Fidesz member – to publicly break with the prime minister, bringing thousands of people onto the streets.

An audio recording was also released in which his wife, Judit Varga, then former justice minister, spoke about alleged government interference in the case.

These accusations damaged Fidesz’s image as a “protector of children” and triggered a moral crisis for the government.

Electoral setback on the ground

Magyar used the scandal as a springboard for the European Parliament elections. After the protests, he toured the country, bypassing state-controlled media. He won 7 of Hungary’s 21 seats in the European Parliament.

When Orbán repeated the same campaign tour this year, he was far less successful—drawing smaller crowds and often facing protests.

In March, he lost control in front of an audience that booed him, accusing him of wanting a “pro-Ukrainian government.” The footage went viral, showing that his support was no longer unconditional.

Foreign policy failures

Orbán based his campaign heavily on foreign policy, blaming Kyiv and the EU and claiming that Magyar would drag the country into war.

However, reports emerged about Russian influence, including claims that the foreign minister had shared internal EU information with Sergey Lavrov.

For Orbán, who began his political career demanding that Soviet troops leave Hungary, this was a severe blow. The slogan “Russians, go home” reappeared—this time directed at him.

Economic crisis

As the election approached, the economy became a central issue. Growth stagnated, inflation rose, and real wages declined.

A cost-of-living crisis, combined with weak investment in healthcare and education, created the impression that the government was no longer delivering on its promises.

Battle over social media

While Orbán dominated traditional media, he lost his advantage on social media.

After restrictions on political advertising on Facebook, Fidesz lost an important tool, while Magyar and his Tisza party gained traction through viral content and direct voter engagement.

Although Orbán has more followers, Magyar achieved significantly higher user engagement.

Alienation of young voters

Perhaps the biggest mistake was losing the youth vote. Polls showed that around two-thirds of young voters supported the opposition.

In his victory speech, Magyar addressed them directly:

“Thank you for bringing back hope, the hope of change.”

Orbán tried to win them back before the election, admitting their years had been “unfair” and promising change—but it was too late.

On Sunday night, young people filled the streets of Budapest celebrating his defeat.