Europe softens blow to Serbia over Mladić

Europe softens blow to Serbia over Mladić

The EU's enlargement commissioner, Olli Rehn, warned that Brussels "will put negotiations on hold" with Serbia and Montenegro early in April if Mladic is not in the hands of the Hague war crimes tribunal by then. Talks on closer ties are currently due to start on April 5.

With Serbian officials dreading the immediate suspension of the talks, the postponement of the decision for more than a month lifted some of the pressure on Belgrade.

Local experts hope the government will be able to fulfil its obligations to The Hague by then, fearing the economic and political consequences of failure.

A decision to grant Serbia more time was made despite the fact that the tribunal's chief prosecutor, Carla del Ponte, said cooperation with Serbia had deteriorated.

A week before the ministerial council meeting, Serbian and international media incorrectly hailed the arrest of the fugitive general. The Serbian government promptly denied the reports, along with claims that secret talks were underway with Mladic on his surrender.

In the meantime, the country faces the prospect of a return to at least partial international isolation.

Yugoslavia was subject to United Nations-imposed sanctions from 1992 until 2000, when Slobodan Milosevic's regime collapsed. Soon after, contacts with the EU were re-established. In 2000 Yugoslavia signed up to the first stage of EU integration in the form of the Community Assistance for Reconstruction, Development and Stabilisation program, CARDS.

Despite continuing failure by the post-Milosevic governments to solve the Mladic issue, early in 2005 Serbia obtained a positive EU feasibility study, boosting its prospects of eventual membership.

Mladic aside, Serbia also stepped up cooperation with The Hague, securing the surrender of over 14 war crimes suspects in actions that won wide international praise.

Last November, Serbia was rewarded with permission to proceed towards the next stage in the European integration process, a Stabilisation and Association Agreement, SAA.

In two rounds of negotiations, focusing on technical issues, the European Commission commended the expertise of Serbian preparations.

Europe's latest decision to back away from immediate suspension of talks with Serbia and Montenegro underlines a reluctance in Brussels to go to the limit over the Mladic issue.

The euphemism currently used in Brussels to describe the potential suspension of talks is "disruption" - an altogether more opaque term.

Christina Galak, spokesperson for the EU foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, said that, "if the EU is not able to see full cooperation [with Serbia] the talks will be disrupted."

"Full cooperation means full cooperation, and leaders in Belgrade know it is going to be difficult to continue as it is if nothing happens," she went on. "The process will not be able to continue if we do not see full cooperation with tribunal."

Galak added, however, that the go-slow was likely to be short-lived. "If talks are disrupted, a decision to renew them can be agreed in a day. This is not something that has to go through a long procedure."

Serbia's deputy prime minister, Miroljub Labus, told the Serbian news agency B92 that Belgrade needed to use the extra time it had obtained to fulfil its obligations.

"We have been given some more time to show and prove that there is, indeed, in place full cooperation with The Hague tribunal and it is up to us alone to take advantage of it or not," he said.

Labus said the term "disruption" was a diplomatic expression, implying greater room for manoeuvre.

Enlargement commissioner Rehn said Serbia's SAA could still be signed this autumn if Serbia cooperated fully with The Hague.

"Serbia today is indeed at a crossroads," he said in Brussels, adding, "I believe Serbia's leaders will be wise enough to make clear decisions to ensure its European future."

Rehn said he believed the political will existed in Serbia to arrest Mladic, but reminded Belgrade that it needed to prove it had effective control over the army and security services. They are widely believed to have protected Mladic for the last decade.

However, some experts in Serbia say the EU may have given away its bargaining power by taking such a lenient line.

Miroslav Prokopijevic, of the Free Markets Centre, said the EU's forgiving attitude might backfire badly on Brussels.

"I am afraid of those situations when someone in the West. uses euphemisms, or fails to set a very specific date, as it is always counterproductive," Prokopijevic said.

"Experience teaches us that the Serbian authorities do good work only when they are under pressure," he added.

Prokopijevic went on to say that if a stalemate over Mladic finally ended in a halt to talks with Europe, the first negative reactions among investors might become apparent by next April. Further into the future, he added, an increase in inflation was likely.

Other economic experts agree a slowdown in talks with Brussels would stem the flow of fresh investments, adversely affecting the budget, foreign currency reserves, job creation schemes and salaries. It might also impair Serbia's access to favourable loans.

Jela Bacovic, head of Serbia and Montenegro's office for EU integration, said a brief suspension of talks would not seriously undermine the influx of investments. However, she said, a longer suspension would send "a very bad message" to potential foreign investors.

Jelica Minic, director of the European Movement in Serbia, a non-governmental organisation, said, "At the moment, Serbia is seen as a good place to invest in the region. The European Union has already become heavily involved here in these talks, as well as the Serbian government; there's no going back."

To stop the process now would be detrimental, she went on, as it would disturb the country's relations with its creditors, undermining the repayment of foreign debts and the privatisation process.

Some observers also warn that the suspension of EU talks may benefit anti-European forces in Serbia, especially the hard-line nationalist Serbian Radical Party, SRS.

The strongest opposition party, with almost one-third of the seats in the Serbian parliament, the SRS is a staunch opponent both of cooperation with The Hague and of the EU. The party also considers Mladic a national hero.

"Any 'state of emergency' will certainly boost the Radicals' standing," Jela Bacovic told Balkan Insight.

Serbia's minority coalition government, consisting of the Democratic Party of Serbia, DSS, the reformist G17 Plus and the Serbian Renewal Movement, SPO, relies on the support of Milosevic's Socialists to stay in power, and is therefore used to making political compromises.

A turbulent period awaits the government anyway, with the likely loss of the southern province of Kosovo, which most Serbs venerate as having been the core of their medieval state.

Another nasty jolt is heading Serbia's way from Montenegro. Serbia's junior partner in the unwieldy state union is moving rapidly towards a referendum on independence in May.

Hence, the Serbian government urgently needs a success in the field of integration with the EU. "The government has decided to play the EU as its trump card," Minic told Balkan Insight.

"It cannot afford now to lose this trump, with the negotiations on Kosovo and Montenegro under way. Mladic is a lower price to pay than everything else."

Tanja Matic is a member of the Balkan Insight investigation team. Balkan Insight is BIRN's internet publication.