"Total Failure"

"Total Failure"

In return, he brought with him a handful of orders for French industry, writes Alexander Gerlach.

French President Emmanuel Macron has once again proven that he does not belong to the heavy category when it comes to diplomacy. He did a disservice to the European Union and the free world with his trip to China. He was proud that Xi Jinping invited him for a private conversation that lasted several hours.

Now it seems that during the meeting, Xi showered Macron with such compliments that, as soon as the latter returned to Paris, he suddenly started saying that Europe should not blindly follow U.S. policy when it comes to China.

It is the recognizable language of Beijing, which sees Europe as a pendant to the US anyway. On the one hand, the communist nomenclature incites against the EU, because China needs this part of the free world for economic growth. Second (and this is more important) because Xi wants to drive a wedge between the nations of the free world and divide them.

Because if Xi makes good on his threat and attacks Taiwan, what matters to him is how the free world will react to his democratic partners in Taipei.

Macron advocates that the Europeans should not be "vassals" of the USA (this is exactly the vocabulary of Beijing), but he does not give an answer to the question of what the alternative would look like if China annexes Taiwan.

The French economy will be rewarded

That's exactly the scenario the Chinese military practiced over the weekend with a three-day military blockade of the island, showing the world that Beijing is ready to attack Taiwan.

And when France, the EU's only remaining nuclear power, says it will not join Washington in defending the freedom of threatened Taiwan, Xi's office pops the champagne.

It is not out of place to assume that this statement by Macron is well thought out and that Beijing will reward it with numerous orders for the French economy (Macron came to China with 60 industry representatives).

Tragically, with his statement, French President has now made an attack on Taiwan more likely.

Because Xi Jinping learned from the mistakes of Vladimir Putin, who was completely surprised by the unique support of the free world for Ukraine, which he attacked.

Xi's "Crimean moment", i.e. preparing the ground according to the Russian recipe, was the crushing of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong. The reaction of the West was the same as to the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 - several protest emails and very harsh comments in the press.

But that's why Trump and Biden, the previous and current president of the USA, set clear boundaries for China. Trump complied with the current legal regulation, according to which, in case it has to defend itself against an attack by China, Taiwan should be supplied with weapons. In addition, he expanded the relations between the two countries. Biden went even further, promising repeatedly to defend the island in the event of an attack by Beijing.

Taiwan is not ruled by separatists

It must be repeated again and again: contrary to what Beijing claims - China has never ruled Taiwan, and Taipei is not ruled by separatists, but by a legitimate government elected in free and fair elections.

Beijing is bothered by a successful democracy on its doorstep because it fears that the Chinese people might follow the example of Taiwan and one day drive the communists from power. That fear is not entirely unfounded: fewer than 100 million of the 1.4 billion Chinese are members of the Communist Party. Should there be nationwide protests against Xi and the Communists, as they did last November, Taiwan could serve as a tried-and-tested democratic alternative to Beijing's dictatorship.

That is why the result of Macron's trip to Beijing - a complete failure - which will be especially felt by the people of Taiwan.

Looking from today's perspective, Washington's skepticism ahead of Macron's trip was not unfounded. The Americans made it known in advance that Macron did not successfully negotiate with Tehran or Moscow, so one should not have high hopes that the trip to Beijing will bear fruit.

Again, it becomes very clear that Germany must position itself well in terms of foreign policy and security policy, because good ideas do not come from France.

Chancellor Scholz is following a course that suits Beijing. Therefore, from Xi's perspective, the two key EU nations pose no threat to his plans for a possible invasion of Taiwan.