Prepare for the disintegration of Russia?

It is becoming increasingly clear that Ukraine will win this war and that the Kremlin is facing a historic crisis of confidence, writes the British "Telegraph".

Izvor: Blic

Monday, 19.09.2022.

08:45

Prepare for the disintegration of Russia?
Foto: Profimedia

Prepare for the disintegration of Russia?

As Blitz reports, there is a real possibility that the revealed weaknesses of Vladimir Putin are so serious that they could be the beginning of the end - not only of his regime, but of the Russian Federation itself.

This huge country that includes more than 120 ethnic groups is on unsustainable foundations, the British newspaper writes, adding that its collapse may be gradual at first, but could quickly become a sudden, violent and uncontrollable event. If the West does not prepare for this possibility, just as we did not prepare for the collapse of the Soviet Union, it could introduce enormous instability into world geopolitics.

"Telegraph" lists three factors that could lead to the dissolution of the Federation. The first is the breakdown of domestic confidence in the Russian military, which has traditionally been the core of the Kremlin's legitimacy. Its humiliation in Ukraine is now almost complete, and the proud Black Sea Fleet is still hiding behind the Crimea, too scared to take action against a country that doesn't even have a navy.

Moreover, Russian men massively avoid conscription, knowing what fate awaits them on the battlefield. This has fueled the disproportionate recruitment of ethnic minorities from Chechnya and other regions on the Federation's fringes – the easiest groups to use as cannon fodder – fueling discontent that Moscow will not easily quell. Second, the damage suffered by the Russian economy is too devastating to support a population of 144 million people, writes "Telegraph".

The loss of energy markets, which compensated for the country's lack of modern industry, cannot be reversed. European governments will not rely on Nord Stream 1 again. Russia also relied on arms exports, but which country will now be interested in buying its equipment or weapons? Such an economic crisis can be maintained for months in the false hope that the situation will stabilize again - but even in Russia the source of stoicism has its limits.

This leads to the third factor, which is sparse population density. Namely, despite having 70 times the land area of, for example, Great Britain, the Russian Federation has only twice as many inhabitants. These numbers make civic solidarity difficult to achieve at the best of times, but now, with the capital in a weak position, any sense of national identity could quickly deteriorate.

Western sanctions will force Moscow's elites to make difficult economic compromises. They will inevitably save the middle class in the capital, which represents a more immediate threat to the regime, to the detriment of the minority population in the constituent provinces. The idea of ​​the need for "decolonization" of Russia has been mentioned in the West for some time.

"Telegraph" writes that difficult questions should now be asked about the potential end of the Russian Federation, so that it does not arise out of nowhere For example, how would this play out in a country that has a significant stockpile of nuclear weapons and several centers of power? Who would "take out" the nukes? How to avoid the leakage of weapons and militants to the Baltic states? Is a major internal conflict inevitable or can the collapse be contained within a political context?

Altogether, these dilemmas pose a very significant challenge for the West. One wrong step and they could face disaster.

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