A major attack from Belarus coming?

A major attack from Belarus coming?

It said senior Kremlin officials continue to hold high-level meetings with the Belarusian leadership.

By doing so, they could create the conditions for a major Russian attack on Ukraine from Belarus, but that, they add, is unlikely to happen in the coming weeks.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin discussed unspecified bilateral military cooperation, unspecified strategic deterrence measures and "progress in the preparation" of the joint Russian-Belarusian regional troop group yesterday.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko yesterday in Minsk and discussed the unspecified Russian-Belarusian "joint vision" for the Russian war in Ukraine.

Lavrov and Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Aleinik discussed how Russia and Belarus can defeat the "current hybrid war of the West against their states" and signed an unspecified memorandum of cooperation "on ensuring biosecurity".

The memo could be a leading indicator of an intensification of an existing Russian intelligence operation falsely accusing Ukraine of developing chemical or biological weapons at purported US-funded biolabs in Ukraine, which was part of the Kremlin's pretext for the military operation that began less than a year ago.

ISW notes that an attack on Ukraine from Belarus is more likely to take place at the end of 2023 than in the first months of the year.