Commonwealth for democracy and rights of nations

Commonwealth for democracy and rights of nations

Don't be embarrassed that you have never heard of it. Neither had I until a few days ago. It turns out that the Commonwealth for Democracy and Rights of Nations is an organization created, financed and supported by Russia.

It is designed to provide the justification, framework and organizational support for Russians living in states formed when the Soviet Union dissolved, who want to stay attached - de facto and ultimately de Jure - to Mother Russia. It was founded on June 14, 2006 in Sukhumi by the leaders of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia (parts of Georgia) and Transnistria (part of Moldova). 

The key elements in the two documents produced by the meeting were expressions of support and appreciation for the continued presence of Russian troops on their territory (contrary to the firm wishes of the governments of those countries and contrary to Russia's commitment under the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe) and the priority given to achieving international recognition of the independence of all three break-away regions.

Later last year, Speakers of the "Parliaments" of the breakaway regions met and formed an Interparliamentary Assembly. They are actively seeking new "members." If this all sounds similar to the regions set up by Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia following the declarations of independence by those two countries, well….it should.  

On June 16 of this year, the "Commonwealth" issued another declaration, which was even more interesting. First of all, it was signed by the three "Foreign Ministers" as well as by an advisor to the "President" of Nagorno Karabakh (a break-away part of Azerbaijan).

It also specifically mentioned the situation in Kosovo and the independence obtained by Montenegro as factors, which should lead to international recognition of these four areas as well.

The timing of the June 16 Declaration was no accident. It was preceded by President Bush's statements in Tirana on June 10 and in Sofia on June 11 that Kosovo "ought to be independent" and that he does not support "endless dialogue" over Kosovo's future status.

Those statements in turn were made in response to the clear lack of progress at the G-8 Summit Meeting in resolving Kosovo's future status.

That stalemate led to significant unease among the Kosovo Albanian Community. The President's remarks were designed to reassure that community that their continued patience would be rewarded. In that respect, he was successful. Both Prime Minister Ceku and President Sejdiu were ecstatic, with the latter calling the June 10 statement a historic day for Kosovo.

The price for soothing the troubled waters of Kosovo Albanian politics (temporarily) was high, however, because President Bush's public commitment to independence significantly limits U.S. flexibility in the oncoming talks with Russian President Putin in Kennebunkport, as well as future negotiations at the UN. It is hard to see how the President can go back on his words.

My read of the situation is that the U.S. saw that it was blocked at the G-8 Summit on the Kosovo question and has adopted the following policy:

---It will permit a delay of several months in resolving status as French President Sarkozy suggested. This was necessary because there simply was not any support for moving ahead immediately.

---The West European Allies will be told unequivocally to get their act together, get the reluctant EU members in line to fully support the Ahtisaari recommendations, be prepared to act in a maximum of six months, and if the Russians block UN Security Council Action, be prepared to permit EU member-countries to decide individually whether to recognize Kosovo.

---Putin will be told in Kennebunkport that we have given him several months to try to bring the parties to a mutually-acceptable compromise, but then it will be time to act and we expect him to support a UN Security Council Resolution along the lines of the Ahtisaari recommendations. We will push this to a veto if necessary and tell him that the consequences will be on his head.

---If all of the above transpires and Russia continues to block a substantive UN Security Council Resolution supporting the Ahtisaari recommendations, we will not stand in the way of a referendum and declaration of independence by the Kosovo Albanians. And we will be the first to recognize the new state. This will all happen this year.

The June 16 Declaration by the "Commonwealth" was a reminder by Putin to the U.S. and others that two can - and will - play the same game. 

While all EU and U.S. statements consistently insist that the Kosovo situation is "sui generis" and no precedent for any other region, that is not the view taken by President Putin and others. At the very least, it means that the problems in all four of the breakaway regions will get more difficult in the days ahead.

Any action by the United States to recognize an independent Kosovo outside of the UN Security Council would immediately lead Russia to begin to take similar actions in these four areas.

But it also seems obvious that any unilateral effort to declare independence without UN Security Council approval will inevitably lead the Kosovo Serbs to resist. And we have seen this movie before….I can envision blocked roads, blocked settlements, "volunteers" from Serbia and finally, declarations of independence for Serbian regions in Kosovo.

This, of course, gets us to the Commonwealth for Democracy and Rights of Nations.  The Kosovo Serb Republic will be a great candidate!

Far from the above being some imaginative, doomsday fantasy, I honestly believe that based on recent developments and the respective statements by Presidents Putin and Bush, the above scenario seems to be the one most likely to occur. We are heading for a train wreck that everybody sees coming, but no one seems capable of preventing. There will be a lot of casualties.

Inevitably, Russia's relations with the United States and the European Union will become even more strained than they already are. Secondly, all of above has to mean an escalation of violence of unknown proportions in Kosovo and perhaps in many of the breakaway regions as well.

Issues such as treatment of the Russian minorities in other countries such as the Baltics will become once again more serious. It also means the end of the Ahtisaari Plan and the many positive safeguards it would have put in place for the minorities in Kosovo. 

Certainly, a number of Kosovo Serbs will find themselves "behind enemy lines" with significant challenges to remain in place.  Serbia's relations with the United States and much of the European Union will once again deteriorate sharply.

Meanwhile, work is going on trying to put together a Security Council Resolution which at the very least, authorizes the EU to replace UNMIK in Kosovo. This is important, as several members of the EU have flatly refused to participate in any EUMIK mission without specific UNSC authorization.

Meanwhile, UNMIK is an organization that packed its bags, literally, months ago, and is incapable of providing leadership and direction in Kosovo. The challenges for any such resolution are daunting, however, as Russia knows how important it is to the EU and will insist on language which will be unacceptable to the U.S. and many of the EU countries such as the UK.

The end result of no resolution will be to increase the likelihood of steps being taken outside of the UN by individual countries sooner rather than later.