The dark prognosis of a man who predicted the war in Ukraine and Gaza; "Catastrophe"

The dark prognosis of a man who predicted the war in Ukraine and Gaza; "Catastrophe"

In an interview with the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung, speaking about the choice between Joseph Biden and Donald Trump in the January elections and the question of who is better for the USA and the West, he said that American voters are facing a difficult decision.

If they choose Biden, they could save the republic, but they will almost certainly lose the empire, and the stakes are almost equally high in the case of Trump's victory, Ferguson estimated.

"Another Biden term will seal the fall of America as a superpower and the end of 'Pax Americana.' On the other hand, if voters elect Trump, who has made it clear that he despises the American Constitution, they risk saying goodbye to the republic. On the other hand, they might manage to save the empire because America's enemies are much more afraid of Donald Trump than Joe Biden," Ferguson said.

On the other hand, as he says, the USA is a very stable democracy, which could certainly survive the second term of Trump. Asked what the three most disastrous decisions Trump could make if he becomes president again, Ferguson puts leaving NATO in the first place.

While Trump was president, he says, he made it clear that he views allies as "windpipes" that only take from the US and give nothing in return.

Secondly, he points out that he is sure that Ukraine would be lost with Trump in the White House, which he believes would be a disaster.

"Maybe this is already the case because the funds are blocked due to opposition in the House of Representatives. In my opinion, it would be a disaster if Ukraine loses the war against Russia. It would lead to a completely new security situation in Europe and force all European countries to significantly increase their defense budgets, for which they are not politically well positioned," Ferguson points out.

However, the issue of Taiwan stands out as the most serious problem of the new Trump mandate. Ferguson warns that Trump may not care at all.

"If you read the memoirs of (former Trump adviser) John Bolton, Trump is basically indifferent to Taiwan. So, one possibility is that Trump would say to China, 'You can do to Taiwan what you did to Hong Kong. I don't care. Let's talk about tariffs.'

But if you look at the campaign rhetoric, he criticizes Biden for being soft on China. So, the Trump administration may actually take a more restrictive approach. Then we could find ourselves in the conflict that I have warned about for a long time," adds Ferguson. He also points out that the rest of the world must also prepare for the scenario of Trump's victory. In this respect, Ferguson points out, Europe must seriously deal with strategic autonomy, which the French president began to insist on some time ago, which is far from being realized - Japan, he says, is closer to strategic autonomy than the European members of NATO.

"It is time for the countries of Europe, big and small, to take their own defense seriously because they can no longer assume that there will always be an American guarantor of their national security. In the Indo-Pacific, Japan, South Korea and others must make a decision whether to accept Chinese dominance and prepare for it. He will try to convince the United States to maintain its dominance in the region. Much will therefore depend on the attitude of Trump and his national security team," Ferguson believes.

When it comes to the Middle East, Ferguson states that Israel must try to root out Hamas, but notes that Iran is the biggest problem. "Almost all the bad actors are actually Iranian proxies. Containing Iran is much more important than containing Israel. I think Israel is already severely constrained by the United States."

As a person who predicted the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, when asked what he predicts for the year 2024, he replies that, in his opinion, Taiwan is most likely next point of conflict. When the author of the interview stated that the world is in a new "Cold War" and that the West could win, Ferguson points out that first of all young Westerners should be explained what defeat looks like.

"Young people on both sides of the Atlantic are very happy with freedom. They don't really seem to care. It's because they can't really imagine what it would be like not to have freedom. I wish we could better explain what a world dominated by the Chinese Communist Party looks like. How about all our calls and e-mails and every transaction being monitored by a highly ideological regime."

Also, as he states, Western officials should be reminded of one of the lessons of classical history and an eternal truth about power - one of them consists in the famous saying "If you want peace, prepare for war". The third is the lesson that, as he says, the recently deceased Henry Kissinger, former US Secretary of State, interpreted back in the 70s, and according to Ferguson, it is still valid today, and that is the strategy of detente.

"That means we're not pretending that China and Russia are becoming the good guys. We recognize them as the enemies that they are. And we're aware that their intentions are almost always malicious. But we're trying to engage them in a way that buys time, and that's time that we need it the most. It will take at least ten years before Europe can defend itself more credibly. It will take ten years for the United States to modernize its increasingly outdated military capabilities. It will take ten years for Taiwan to successfully defend itself against Chinese aggression. We need time", concludes Ferguson.